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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan Saline who wrote (8724)	2/17/1999 7:13:00 PM
From: LastShadow	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 43080

Funny, other than U and ZITL, I don't see anything on Sue's list that anyone has posted or played this year. I'm not talking about "solid american companies". I'm not talking about the internets. I'm talking about the indices. The SPX specifically - a capitalization weighted index that is heavily influenced by about 14 companies, and primarily affected by MSFT and DELL. And I'm not saying here aren't any good buys out there. What I am saying is that there could be selling pressure now and that may drive prices lower. The market wasn't crawling all over itself to accumulate at these prices before close. So rather than tell me my lists are skewed (albeit those are the stocks we have been posting and playing for six months), why don't you guys post a watch list of what we should be looking to enter tomorrow. I don't have a list. My screens came up empty.

To: Susan Saline who wrote (8724)	2/17/1999 8:02:00 PM
From: Dave Shares	Respond to of 43080

Can I join this discussion... If there are stocks that are near their Oct. lows, I find it hard to believe that they would be in an uptrend. The only stocks I recall being in an uptrend in early October were the utilities. And in early October, many stocks were sitting below the 200dma. I would be more inclined to compare the present to early August, with the major difference being that the four months prior to August, 1998 had gains nothing like the gains we've seen from October until now. I do not have a clue what to expect from the market, but I do believe that there is more downside potential than upside potential. Almost all of my trades have been short for the last several weeks. I had a bad string for one week, but have been otherwise profitable, I'm just trading the way I see the trend. Sue, you are a gifted stock picker especially when it comes to picking a bottom, I only wish I had that talent. I am sure that you will find your share and maybe the downside will be short lived, and maybe the stocks on your list are ready to take off. But I really don't see the present as I see October. Stocks are near or at their trend lines more than they are in downtrends. Which is why I could be completely wrong and the downside may be more limited than I believe it to be. But when I see Scott's list of stocks that are significantly above the October low, it does not give me much comfort that there is so much room between their current level and the October bottom. I for one cannot afford to take a position and see a stock drop 20% and still be significantly above its October low (Note: I hopefully have learned enough to not let that much of a loss accumulate in a position). The global economy is not like it was in August, so the downward pressure may not be as great as it was. However, even if interest rates do not change, as some have predicted, there does not appear to be much hope of a decrease in rates, and so at best, monetary policy will have a neutral effect on the market, although, in my opinion, even if interest rates stay the same, there will be more anticipation of rate hikes than of rate decreases, and this will have a negative effect. Having said all this, I'll go out on a little bit of a limb with a meaningless prediction..... what moves the market next will be something that we did not expect...I don't know what that is going to be, but I am just saying that it will be something unexpected...just a wild guess on my part. I'll daytrade for now. As bearish as I've been, the last thing I need is to get caught in a bear trap. Daytrading is safer. David