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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Catcher who wrote (102256)	2/17/1999 8:25:00 PM
From: freeus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

re most analysts miss True. I'll be over it tomorrow! But I'll love it when this "correction" (because it isnt just DELL its the market in general) is over. Freeus

To: Catcher who wrote (102256)	2/17/1999 8:53:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Catcher, Re: Projected earnings this quarter...... IDC preliminary numbers were 92,000 units higher than DELL reported. This translates into 221 million in revenues and inflated my projections of DELL revenues by that amount. Next the drop in ASP from 2400 to 2350 reduced the actual revenues by 110 million dollars. Add the two numbers up and you get 330 million dollar shortfall in revenues. A lot of us were also fooled by the the IDC numbers on the external disk storage market. We believed that this would be accretive and in fact it was not. My verdict is that we have insufficient information to accurately predict DELL's earnings. The error range seems to be about 10%. I believe Kumar and Niles had some guidance that we did not get. So the IDC numbers would not by themselves lead Kumar or Niles to the correct estimate of revenues. Regards, Jim Kelley