To: +Joseph Pareti (73815 )
From: +Paul Engel Wednesday, Feb 17 1999 3:54AM ET
Reply # of 73922
Joe & Intel Investors - Intel's 1999 Road Map "Revealed"
The following is a VERY LONG and VERY DETAILED description of Intel's 1999 Product RoadMap .
The authors, from the PC Enthusiast site "Sharky Extreme", claim the information comes from "sources close to Intel " (don't they all !).
The level of detail and granularity and consistency seem to bear this out.
It's a LONG READ - so be prepared ! Also, this RoadMap addresses only DESKTOP systems. Mobile Platforms and Server Platforms are not detailed.
Note that WHITNEY, the 810 Chip Set - appears on this RoadMap for a Q3 introduction. Whitney is an integrated Chip Set with the 3D graphics engine Portola and possibly additional features for multimedia.
Enjoy !
Paul
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sharkyextreme.com
02 - 17 - 99
The Long & Winding Intel Road Map for 1999
by Alex "Sharky" Ross & Joan "Mango" Wood : February 16th 1999
Earlier this month the Sharky Extreme staff brought you a full blown gawk at AMD's latest roadmap and as promised we're now keeping you well and truly posted on how Intel views their own sunny future. After several conversations and meetings with key sources close to Intel, we can now reveal our weather forecast based on information included in their latest roadmap.
The Intel article will be split up into two parts. First, we'll look closely at what Intel calls the Consumer Desktop plans with a few tidbits from the Business Desktop roadmap and then follow-up later on in the week with our take on their plans for the Mobile CPU which (surprisingly) may interest gamers.
Consumer Desktop
First and foremost Intel looks to be expecting a significant increase in the sales of consumer PCs, which in no small terms could well mirror the fact that Y2K compliance is becoming talked about almost as much as what the current US President does in his spare time. In somewhat simple terms, Intel applies a 'segmentation strategy' in order to market their CPUs. We've seen it in their documents/roadmaps and in the past it hasn't always been all that pretty. For example, back at Cebit '98, we were slightly miffed at how Intel could see gamers as being at the bottom of the pile and only requiring 'entry level' solutions (before the Celeron days). Luckily though, their segmentation strategy has matured some and evolved much more advantageously to the gamer (through the Celeron's overclocking capabilities) as a result.
The transition from slot 1based SEPP (Single Edge Processor Package) Celerons to the PPGA (Plastic Pin Grid Array) connector will happen mostly in Q1 and see the SEPP Celeron phased out completely in Q2 in favor of PPGA. Intel feels that the packaging transition from SEPP to PPGA Celerons reduces the cost by some $10 per unit.
NOTE: System Pricing is without monitor
The New Sub-$600 PC
While 1998 was the year that sub-$1000 PCs became a reality, 1999 is the year Intel hopes to promote the sub-$600 package. This is certainly good news for gamers or indeed end-users wanting a second system intended for games. With the Intel Celeron processor still being at the heart of the system in question, overclocking capabilities will still push the speed barriers and add more value. For Q1 of 1999, the Celeron 300A with 128KB Level 2 cache with a 66MHz front side bus with a 440LX or 440EX chipset based motherboard is being looked upon as the 'starting point' by Intel. Q2 will see the 300A fizzling out and being replaced by the Celeron 333MHz, with the introduction of the Intel 810 chipset midway through Q2, phasing out the 440LX and EX chipsets by the end of the year. The 333MHz will then be upgraded to the 366MHz in Q3, ending the year (Q4) with a Celeron 400MHz and a merry Xmas to us all.
Sub $600 PC, The New Value PC
Price: Less than $600
CPU (all Celeron), Bus Speed, Motherboard Chipset by Quarter: Q1: 300AMHz; 66MHz FSB; 440LX/440EX Q2: 333MHz; 66MHz FSB; 440LX/440EX/Intel 810 introduced mid quarter Q3: 366MHz; 66MHz FSB; 440LX/440EX/Intel 810 Q4: 400MHz; 66MHz FSB; Intel 810; 440LX/440EX to be phased out at end of quarter
Value PC - The Celeron Story
Those of you that are either ardent fans of overclocking or will be in the market for $600-$1100 PCs may well be happy to know that the Celeron 433MHz has been pulled forward from Q2 and instead will be launched in March 1999. So in less than a month's time you'll start to see the slightly faster 433MHz hit the market. But it won't stop there as Intel has also promised to push the Celeron to even greater speeds in excess of 466MHz and has pushed forward the release of the 466MHz to late Q2. Although unspecified in the road map, a late Q3 date should see 466+MHz Celerons being released. Along with 466+MHz may be the inclusion of a 100MHz Front Side Bus. This is all true for Socket 370 PPGA based Celerons and the distinct absence of any SEPP Celerons on Intel's radar can only mean one thing. Good bye at 433Mhz and possibly even at 400MHz. We'll all be sorry to see them and their use with BX motherboards go… According to Intel, the Value PC sector will also have integrated 3D graphics with Intel Dynamic Video Memory in the second half of the year.
How long will the Celeron last?
Clearly the Celeron 400 looks like being the value CPU of 1999, much like the Celeron 300A was in 1998. It is the starting point for the high-end ValuePC and the sub $600 PC's year end note so it will have a full year's production run even though the packaging will change. Being able to safely overclock the 400Mhz version of the Celeron up to and in excess of 500MHz is a no brainer with current BX based boards and hence gamers or end users interested in a second machine will still consider the Celeron 400Mhz as a viable option we think. The whole shift from SEPP to PPGA will mean overclockers will have to move a notch down from a BX based motherboard to (shock horror) the EX and later on the Intel 810. And if that doesn't tickle your fancy (the EX that is), then rest assured that Celeron 466Mhz-500MHz CPUs will still be around till the first half of 2000. Clearly there's a LOT of life in the Celeron yet (with 128K of integrated Level2 cache). Just how this will affect AMDs K6-3 CPU is certainly an issue in itself. We've already seen how far they are willing to ramp up their speeds but whether or not AMD can actually deliver these forecasted products is still in serious question. At least with its overclocking capabilities, the Celeron is still going to be an EXTREMELY good choice for the gamer of 1999. That's the way we see it anyway.
Value PC is all Celeron Based
Value PC 1
Price Range: $600-$800
CPU (all Celeron); Bus Speed; Motherboard Chipset by Quarter: Q1: 333MHz; 66MHz FSB; 440LX/440EX Q2: 366MHz; 66MHz FSB; 440LX/440EX/Intel 810 introduced mid quarter Q3: 400MHz; 66MHz FSB; Intel 810 Q4: 433MHz; 66MHz FSB; Intel 810
Ancillary Components Timetable by Half Year: H1: 32MB of 66MHz SDRAM; 3D AGP 2-4MB graphics card; 5Gig ATA33 hard drive; V.90; USB H2: 48MB of 66MHz SDRAM; Integrated 3D graphics with Intel's Dynamic Video Memory (D.V.M); 6Gig ATA33 hard drive; softV.90
Value PC 2
Price Range: $800-$900
CPU (all Celeron); Bus Speed; Motherboard Chipset by Quarter: Q1: 366MHz; 66MHz FSB; 440LX/440EX Q2: 400MHz; 66MHz FSB; 440LX/440EX/Intel 810 introduced mid quarter Q3: 433MHz; 66MHz FSB; Intel 810 Q4: 466MHz; 66MHz FSB; Intel 810
Ancillary Components Timetable by Half Year: H1: 48MB of 66MHz SDRAM; 3D AGP 4MB graphics card; 6Gig ATA33 HD; V.90; USB H2: 64MB of 66MHz SDRAM; Integrated 3D graphics with Intel's D.V.M; 8Gig ATA33 HD; softV.90; DVD
Value PC 3
Price Range: $900-$1100
CPU (all Celeron); Bus Speed; Motherboard Chipset by Quarter: Q1: 400MHz/433MHz introduced late quarter; 66MHz FSB; 440ZX-66 Q2: 433MHz/466MHz introduced mid quarter; 66MHz FSB; 440ZX-66/Intel 810 introduced mid quarter Q3: 466MHz/66MHz FSB; 466+MHz introduced late quarter (possibly with 100MHz FSB); Intel 810 Q4: 466+MHz; 66 OR 100MHz FSB; Intel 810
Ancillary Components Timetable by Half Year: H1: 64MB of 66MHz SDRAM; 3D AGP 4MB graphics card; 8Gig ATA33 HD; V.90; USB H2: 64MB of 66MHz or 100MHz SDRAM; Integrated 3D graphics with Intel's D.V.M; 10Gig ATA33 HD; softV.90; DVD
Mainstream Performance PC
Moving swiftly on to the 'mainstream' (so Intel likes to bracket) end user, we leave the Celerons behind. With the various difficulties in taking the Intel Camino chip set and the Rambus DRAMs it supports up to the required speeds to accommodate a 133MHz system bus, delays to the rollout of PCs based upon the higher speed Rambus technology will probably occur. Even though a 600MHz version of Direct Rambus DRAMs could offer twice as much bandwidth as current PC 100 SDRAM, which should trickle down to boost performance of 3D games, Intel only projects 300MHz and 400Mhz RDRAM being introduced during the second half of the year. Sources close to Sharky Extreme hinted that Intel should be able to have Pentium IIIs supporting 133MHz FSB with a 533MHz CPU, thus the Pentium II 350Mhz will be phased out after Q1, the 400MHz will be gone by mid year and the 450Mhz falls off the Business Desktop roadmap by the end of Q3. To help spur Pentium III sales, Intel has lowered the introduction pricing for the 500MHz and decreased the price difference between the Pentium II and the 450MHz Pentium III.
The Pentium III (Katmai), which will be officially unveiled in San Jose on February 17th, will be released without any other glitches. Even though the support for Katmai enabled games is currently about as thin as a stick insect on a diet, the Pentium III, as most of you know, is to be launched at 450Mhz and 500MHz. The 100MHz FSB versions of the Pentium III (450Mhz and 500Mhz) will most likely fizzle out by the beginning of 2000. But better news comes in the shape of Intel's plans to introduce a Pentium III 600MHz CPU (dubbed Coppermine) by the end of Q3 and a 600+MHz by the yearend, which should push the speed barrier even further, with SIMD and SSE instructions to boot. The introduction of Coppermine also heralds the transition from .25micron to .18micron.
For those of you that are either interested in breaking speed limits or are fans of Chuck Yeager, then you'll be totally satisfied to know that 700MHz looks to be well on the cards for the year 2000. Unfortunately the 700MHz target probably won't be attained in the first half of 2000 though. We were told that the second half of 2000 was a much more realistic target. The Intel 820 chipset (set for a late Q2 intro) will be specifically designed for use with both Pentium III Katmai and Coppermine CPUs to prolong the life of the 820 platform.
Mainstream Performance 1
Price Range: $1000-$1500
CPU; Bus Speed; Motherboard Chipset by Quarter: Q1: Pentium II 350/400MHz; 100MHz FSB; 440BX/440ZX Q2: Pentium II 400MHz; 100MHz FSB; 440BX/440ZX Q3: Pentium III (Katmai) 450MHz; 100MHz FSB; 440BX/440ZX/Intel 820 Q4: Pentium III (Katmai) 450MHz/500MHz; 100MHz FSB; Intel 820/440BX & 440ZX to fade out
Ancillary Components Timetable by Half Year: H1: 64MB of 100MHz SDRAM; 3D AGP2X 8-16MB graphics card; 10Gig ATA33 HD; V.90/G.lite; USB; 1394A; AC'97 Home Network H2: 64MB of 300MHz RDRAM; 3D AGP2X (4X ready) 8-16MB graphics card; 12Gig ATA66 HD; V.90/G.lite; DVD; 1394A; Home Network; TV Tuner
Mainstream Performance 2
Price Range: $1500-$2000
CPU; Bus Speed; Motherboard Chipset by Quarter: Q1: Pentium II 400/450MHz; 100MHz FSB; 440BX Q2: Pentium III (Katmai) 450MHz; 100MHz FSB; 440BX/Intel 820 introduced Q3: Pentium III (Katmai) 500MHz; 100MHz FSB; Intel 820 Q4: Pentium III (Katmai) 533MHz; 133MHz FSB; Intel 820
Ancillary Components Timetable by Half Year: H1: 64MB of 100MHz SDRAM, 3D AGP2X 8-16MB, 12Gig HDD AATA33, V.90/G.lite, USB, 1394A, AC'97 Home Network H2: 96MB of 400MHz RDRAM, 3D AGP4X 8-16MB, 16Gig HDD ATA66, V.90/G.lite, DVD, 1394A, Home Network, TV Tuner
Mainstream Performance 3
Price Range: $2000-$2500
Q1: Pentium II 450MHz/Pentium III (Katmai) 450MHz; 100 FSB; 440BX Q2: Pentium III (Katmai) 500MHz/100MHz FSB; 533MHz/133MHz FSB; 440BX/Intel 820 Q3: Pentium III (Katmai) 500MHz/100MHz FSB; 533MHz/133MHz FSB; Intel 820; Coppermine 600MHz/133MHz FSB introduced Q4: Coppermine 600MHz; 133MHz FSB; Intel 820
Ancillary Components Timetable by Half Year: H1: 96MB of 100MHz SDRAM; 3D AGP2X 16MB graphics card; 16Gig ATA33 HD; V.90/G.lite; USB; 1394A; AC'97 Home Network H2: 96MB of 400MHz RDRAM; 3D AGP4X 16-32MB graphics card; 18Gig ATA66 HD; V.90/G.lite; DVD; 1394A; Home Network; DTV Tuner
Enthusiast
Finally for the 'high-end' enthusiast (early technology/innovation adopters), Intel is looking to see the somewhat disappointing Pentium II Xeon (at least for gamers) running right through until June of this year. Certainly the Xeon could well be frowned upon as being in no uncertain terms a 'flop' (for gamers) and hence will be replaced by the Pentium III 500MHz. Intel has already disclosed the Intel Pentium III Xeon(tm) processor brand name, which is targeted for the server and workstation market segments. And even though the Xeon 500/550Mhz will still be available until the end of this year (again for servers), autumn should see the initial rollout of the Pentium III 667MHz (so what's wrong 666Mhz? Everyone knows that the devil punches his time clock over at Microsoft!). Speeds will be rolled up even further and Intel's plans indicated that 800MHz would be introduced in the year 2000.
Enthusiast
Price: More than $2500
Q1: Pentium II 450MHz/Pentium III (Katmai) 500MHz; 100 FSB; 440BX Q2: Pentium III (Katmai) 500/100MHz FSB; 533MHz/133MHz FSB; 440BX/Intel 820 Q3: Pentium III (Katmai) 533MHz; 133MHz FSB; Intel 820; Coppermine 600MHz with 133MHz FSB introduced Q4: Coppermine 600/600+MHz; 133MHz FSB; Intel 820
The End of the Road
What it all comes down to is this: When you are considering an entity as large as Intel, are they forecasting the weather or creating it? Also, sometimes after many hours flipping channels and comparing forecasts, it's a good idea to just go outside and look at the sky. And if you are AMD, come prepared with a pair of Wellington boots (rubbers) and an umbrella unless you want to get drenched.
Alex "Sharky" Ross & Joan "Mango" Wood Editor-In-Chief
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