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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MangoBoy who wrote (10342)	2/18/1999 11:09:00 AM
From: SteveG	Respond to of 12468

BTAB on Australia: (fwiw, I didn't even see this yesterday, and I speak with a number of institutions that follow WCII closely who also didn't know about it. So I'm guessing our weakness is a three-fold market/sector/secondary related. I understand there will be a number of announcements coming into early March, some as Bo Fifer has said, related to partnerships.) from BTAB: ~~~~~~~~~~ WCII: Bows Out Of Australian 28/31 GHz Auctions Bo Fifer Jeff Hines HIGHLIGHTS: -- The auctions for 28/31 GHz licenses in Australia came to a close yesterday (17-Feb U.S., 18-Feb Aus.) with one entity, AAPT LMDS Ltd., successfully bidding on all licenses. WinStar, which had bid on licenses for several large cities, (as well as Teligent, which filed for the auction but did not place any bids), did not receive any licenses. -- POSITIVE NEW NEWS: The winning bid for Sydney drew US$6.57/POP, significantly higher than the US$0.20/POP WinStar recently paid for licenses in Argentina. On a channel-POP basis (number of 100 MHz channels x POPs), Sydney sold for $US0.57/channel-POP, or nearly 12-times what WinStar paid in Argentina. Although other licenses were not as expensive, Australia's other major city, Melbourne, sold for about US$4.70/POP. We are encouraged to see that WinStar has not adopted a "spectrum at all costs" approach to acquiring licenses. -- NEGATIVE NEW NEWS: Nevertheless, WinStar had indicated a strong interest to enter the Australian market, and must now look for alternative ways to do so (i.e., most likely a partnership or joint venture may still be possible). -- STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE: YTD, WCII is down 13%, versus a 0% gain in the S&P 500 and a 10% gain in our CLEC Index. -- NET-NET: We are glad to see WinStar bow out of "expensive" auctions, especially when up against an indigenous company with clear aspirations to assemble a nationwide footprint. WinStar will obviously no longer need to deploy capital in Australia (which could be viewed by some as positive), although we believe the benefits of being a global carrier are clear and the company has made its intentions clear enough that investors should not be caught off guard by spectrum acquisition announcements (even further announcements regarding Australia). -- VALUATION: Based on our 10-yr DCF, using a 20% equity discount rate and a 10x terminating multiple, our 12-month price objective for WCII is $64/share.

To: MangoBoy who wrote (10342)	2/18/1999 11:14:00 AM
From: Steven Bowen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12468

"buyers of the secondary offering are now down 25%." What the heck were Grubman and Governali doing letting this thing price at 41.75 if they weren't positive WinStar had announcements coming that could support the price at at least this level? To me, this is a major screw up on Grubman's part, and I bet they have a lot of very pissed off large customers. And how the heck did the stock hold the 40's so long before the secondary on no news, only to collapse immediately afterward? A little upward manipulation? Anybody remember level II? Was it all SSB and CSFB on the bid supporting the price? If you can't tell, this whole situation is kinda pissing me off. How can you schedule a secondary with no news? At least I shorted P-Com at 9 1/2, it's the ONLY thing saving my ass these days.