Geof, I don't think that I could do your response any justice this evening. I'll revisit it over the weekend, if you don't mind. In the meantime, here's a piece concerning the Japanese initiative that was started some years back, with a goal of having fiber to every home by 2010.
Japan has stated a direction on FTTH with a set of objectives. I don't know if I necessarily like the idea of the government taking such a role, but that's besides the point. Also, with the economic troubles they've had in recent years, I'm not sure how far they have progressed with this or if they are on schedule. Maybe you or someone else here can comment on that?
The 'excerpt' below is from a Los Alamos National Laboratory paper I had bookmarked a while back. It states many of the same conditions and mimics some of the same concerns you've mentioned, along with some of the same motivations and obstacles I've implied in my last post. The full text of this paper is available at the url shown below.
I don't intend for this to serve as a model, or a blueprint, of what should be done here... I frankly don't know what that is, yet.
But it does present some good discussion regarding the basic considerations in line with most of our own domestic needs, both now and more importantly in the future, right down to some of the NII initiatives.
Also, keep in mind, that this paper was written in the 1996 time frame, which becomes readily apparent when you read it.
Enjoy, and Regards, Frank Coluccio
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nmjc.org
Japan Information Access Project
Japanese Government Policies for the Development of an Advanced
Info-Communications Infratructure[1]
Burgess Laird[2], Senior Staff Specialist
Computing, Information & Communications Division
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Pillar I: Development of a Nationwide Fiber-Optic Network
The central pillar of the MPT ICI program is definitely the development of a national fiber-optic network system extending to every home. MPT estimates that by 2010, the project will have created 2.43 million new jobs, or roughly twice as many jobs as existed in the Japanese automobile industry in 1990 and four times as many jobs as existed in the Japanese consumer electronics industry in 1990.
Significantly, MPT never reveals whether the new job estimate represents a net figure, or whether the job gain in the fiber-optic category comes at the expense of some job loss in traditional industries like electronics and communications equipment and automobiles. Further, MPT claims that of the projected ¥123 trillion global market for the multimedia industry anticipated to exist in 2010, new markets associated with Japan's fiber optic network alone will total ¥56 trillion or about 2.49 percent of total domestic production in 1990.
The nationwide broadband fiber-optic network will combine high-capacity optical fibers with ATM technology. MPT is working closely with NTT and the Ministry of Construction which both perform and contract out the work to communication equipment manufacturers and software development firms. In September 1994, NTT began tests on the shared usage of the high-speed, wide-area backbone network with the objectives of establishing the technology to build the networks and to create the many applications that will run on it.[67] In 1995, MPT was able to secure from the Ministry of Finance a special loan account totaling some $323 million to be made available at an interest rate of 2.5 percent for financing the construction of the fiber-optic network system.
No one denies that MPT's plans for a nationwide fiber-optic network address a critical weakness in Japan's info-communications infrastructure. With a smaller percentage of its population able to access CATV, LANs, and even the common old telephone system (COTS) than is the case in the United States, Japan has a potentially disadvantageous infrastructure problem and consequently a diffusion weakness on its hands that an ambitious national goal of establishing Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) by 2010 will remedy in one undertaking, if accomplished.
However, MPT's plan has come under two principal criticisms. The first is that FTTH is seen as being neither necessary, nor cost-effective. The argument here is that not every household will need the sort of two-way interactive communications capabilities that FTTH is so well suited to delivering. Not needing such capabilities, why incur the cost of something that will not be used? The second criticism is that the reliance on fiber-optics as the optimal multimedia transmission medium for the nation is itself unwarranted in light of technological advances in such areas as compression technology, coaxial cable, and wireless technologies.[68] As the experience of MITI's Fifth Generation Computer Project warns, placing all of a bureaucracy's bet on just one technology in a field of rapidly evolving technologies, is simply too big a policy risk to run. The implication of the two criticisms is that MPT would do better to slow down some and spread its bets so as to see what possibilities technological innovation makes possible. To its credit, a new five-year R&D plan being developed inside MPT (reviewed below) indicates that the Ministry has backed away from its original position of almost sole reliance on fiber-optics.
Pillars II & III: Application and Technology Development
In one of the most uncharacteristic and therefore significant passages of the ICI program statement, the Telecommunications Council candidly asserts that MPT's "new media" projects of the 1980s were "failures" because they were "unable to generate enough consumer demand to justify their establishment as a field of business." The "principal causes" of the failure are said to include the fact "the hardware-oriented approach was taken largely from the suppliers' perspective without adequate consideration given to the development of applications, resulting in insufficient demand"; "the network services focused on those favoring the telephone, and a new tariff system for 'new media' was not introduced to accelerate such services"; and the number of experts committed to the operation as well as the budgets were both insufficient.[69] In contrast to its "new media" projects, MPT insists that its ICI projects will focus on the task of generating consumer demand by developing "a wide range of measures that concentrate on the inclusion of user interest." Such measures include "a new tariff system tailored for the multimedia age, assistance in the initial stages of utilization, protection of information assets, and burden sharing for software, maintenance, hardware and human resources." The significance of MPT's admission of failure in such a recent undertaking as the new media projects goes beyond just a political or rhetorical mea culpa to demonstrate that the Ministry has learned from its mistakes and is unlikely to commit the same mistakes again. As the ICI-related projects that MPT introduces begin to mature, analysts will want to review the extent to which the projects are structured to meet MPT's focus on meeting consumer demand.
In 1994 and 1995, MPT launched two of its largest ICI-related technology development projects in collaboration with private industry, universities, and local government. The two experimental projects are located in Kansai Science City and aimed at developing next-generation technologies for an advanced information infrastructure. MPT has so far devoted about $140 million to the establishment of the two projects, which includes about $48 million for the establishment of a new branch of MPT's Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) in Kansai City for participation in the projects.[70]
The first of these is the Broadband Integrated Services Digital Network (B-ISDN) Application Field Research Project, which is a 10-year project designed to test the practical uses of B-ISDN for such applications as multimedia on-line shopping, interactive remote education, electronic libraries, teleconferencing and high-speed local area network (LAN) communications.
The second project is the Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) Multimedia Pilot Model Project, now formally known as the Association for Promotion of New Generation Service (PNGS). This is a 3-year project to test a system for providing private homes with combined telecommunications and broadcasting services, including video-on-demand and high density TV. However, an NSF-supported technical team that visited the PNGS project site in 1995 and studied its R&D activities gave the project an overall negative rating, reporting that the project is based on "obsolete technology" and that the current market trial is hampered by several weaknesses including a thinness in the number of services and software delays.[71]
The 1994 establishment of three new laboratories for R&D on high-speed (~1Terabit/second[72]) networks, universal terminals, and advanced graphics information provides a second example of an MPT initiated technology development effort.
One of the facilities focuses on the development of a new television with 2,000 scanning lines, approximately twice as many as in the HDTV already developed. This system will be applied to the display of medical X-rays for remote diagnosis via telemedicine applications. MPT's Communications Research Laboratory is also developing improved data compression capabilities and has invited manufacturing companies to participate in joint research.[73]
Also in 1995, MPT coordinated the establishment of the Yokosuka Telecom Research Park (YRP), adjacent to NTT's Yokosuka R&D Center, to promote the development of next-generation mobile communications technology. The YRP's Promotion Association is headed by a former MPT executive, Shuzo Tokuda. NTT DoCoMo, Japan's largest mobile communications carrier, as well as NEC, Matsushita Communications Industries, Motorola, and Ericsson are participating in YRP. At the heart of YRP's facilities will be the YRP R&D Center, which will focus on the development of advanced mobile communications technologies. MPT is funding much of the cost of constructing the R&D Center, estimated at roughly ¥8 billion ($80 million).[74]
According to Japanese press accounts of January of this year,[75] MPT has committed itself to drawing up a five year basic R&D program for the development of advanced telecommunications technologies through FY 2000. In addition to the projects now underway, the plan is reported to budget an additional ¥31.5 trillion to support 11 R&D projects in the following areas:
1.development of an advanced optical fiber network system
2.initiation of the mobile communication system or Future Public Land Mobile Telecommunication System
3.development of the next-generation Internet
4.development of advanced imaging technology
5.start of comprehensive integrated services digital broadcasting (ISDN)
6.development of advanced satellite telecommunications
7.development of a new frequency source to meet increasing telecommunication business demands
8.promotion of unique, basic research with private sector firms
9.development of new devices for the next generation of telecommunication systems
10.study of biological functions and their possible application to telecommunications
11.application of telecommunication technologies to global ecology. |
