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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (102654)	2/18/1999 1:32:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

Chuzz, in looking at 4Q 1997...Dell sequentially, and y-o-y, had a huge jump in revenue....and, additionally, looking at margins for 4Q '97...it actually went down sequentially (from 7.8% to 7.6%).. Why do I bring this up? Because I think the acceleration in revenue in 4Q played its part in making the 4Q revenue growth drop look worse then it was (on a % basis)...It looks like in 4Q '97...Dell drove that revenue number (at some sacrifice for margins)... So, I think the y-o-y comparisons (revenue) make this an even tougher quarter in some ways... Let's look at this coming quarter... If Dell can grow revenues 6% sequentially this quarter(and TM said that he is expecting mid-single digit)..given what TM and MD have called the best sales "pipeline" in many quarters, even years....AND an additional boost from Y2K spending......AND the additional kick-in-the-pants Dell now has from last quarter (+ adjustment of pricing model) AND the delays of the couple big contracts mentioned by TM and MD, I am thinking that 6% is not unrealistic here... .06 x 5.17B (4th quarter revs) = 310m + 5.17B= 5.48B (1st quarter projection) On a y-o-y basis, 5.48B would represent 47% revenue growth (y-o-y) vs. 1st quarter '98... Why the jump? (From 38% y-o-y revenue growth in Q4 '98 to 47% y-o-y revenue growth in Q1 '99?)...because, sequentially, Dell grew revenues less than 5% from Q4 '98 to Q1 '99.... So this next quarter, IMO, Dell can be expected to get the revenue number back into 40%+ y-o-y growth range....I would think seeing this,,,,,that this would help alleviate the (some) concerns of those worried about the Dell "slowdown".. Applying a .083 margin.....5.48B x .083= 455m net before taxes... 455m/2740m shares= 16.6 cents a share or 17 cents a share... I reckon the analysts will put consensus at 16...so if Dell hits my listed targets...... Dell will be able to claim .01 above estimates, 47% revenue growth, and 49% earnings growth..EPS growth at 55%.. If Dell can hit the aforementioned numbers.."bullish" investor opinions about last quarter being just "a bump in the road" will be justified...

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (102654)	2/18/1999 3:38:00 PM
From: Boplicity	Respond to of 176387

I'm talking price appreciation the bottom line to me. 10, maybe 15 or 20% this year max from here a far cry of DELL of the past. One has to also take in to account that fact that there are other stocks were time weighted price appreciation will be better then DELL. If we see 100+ before the end of the year I'll be amazed. When I look at an investment I weight time right up there with price appreciation, and right now in my book, If an investors has held DELL since the beginning of the year, they will waste one year or more, to get what they could of gotten in one month... yes yes 20/20 and all that, but still... As far as your sales growth, DELL will have grow into it's PE now, this will cause side ways movement. IMHO Greg