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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roads End who wrote (48757)	2/18/1999 1:48:00 PM
From: Elwood P. Dowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Cramer is Stumped By James J. Cramer So now the scramble begins. What can be owned and what can't be owned because of Dell (DELL:Nasaq)? Was the revenue shortfall demand-related or did it occur because competition has heated up and IBM ( (NYSE:IBM - news) ) and Compaq ( (NYSE:CPQ - news) ) are taking share? Have personal computer sales slowed, making it impossible to own drives and semiconductors? Or is there a personal computer price war that may be hurting Dell but could benefit suppliers, including the drives and the semis? Is Europe soft? Did North America slow? Was there pent-up demand related to Y2-K that pumped up fourth-quarter sales to the detriment of 1999? And here's the clincher: We were at work until 8:30 p.m. on Tuesday speaking to analysts and we still don't know the answer. I doubt we will find out the answer today. I doubt there really is an answer yet, as things seem very in flux. Part of me wants to believe it was a price war and that sales are robust. But is that the part of me that is long Intel ( (Nasdaq:INTC - news) ) and doesn't want to sell, despite the possibility that it should be sold? Part of me wants to say: "The heck with tech, get me some more food and beverage stocks or a bank or two." Another part of me says, "any tech but personal computers," so we should be looking at telecommunications equipment companies and even Web offerings. Finally, some part of me deep down wants to believe that, yes, at a certain price, at some level, you can even on the personal computer makers because they ar The latter, I am afraid, might be wishful thinking. Above all, it is the lack of knowledge that pains me. I want so much to pronounce everything fine, but I can't. I just don't know enough. Anybody who tells you he does is either a wizard with unearthly powers, or a charlatan. Yes, it is just that hard. Random musings: Is this the end of TSEL -- the stocks everybody loves? Nah, they don't die that easily. In fact, resilience of the loved stocks will probably surprise us to the upside even as Dell blows up. Oh gee, thought I would never write those three words together. James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At the time of publication, the fund owned Dell call options and Intel common stock. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending an email to letters@thestreet.com. Concerned about the future of Net stocks? TSC is holding a special summit on Feb. 19 to discuss the Internet sector. Join columnists James J. Cramer and Herb Greenberg, Andy Kessler of Velocity Capital, Nicholas Moore of Jurika & Voyles, CIBC Oppenheimer's Henry Blodget, Internet Fund manager Ryan Jacob and Brian Salerno of Munder Capital. You'll be able to listen to a live broadcast of the event and later read the transcripts -- but first, help us shape the discussion. Visit this page for the details.