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To: Mike from La. who wrote (37769)	2/18/1999 4:02:00 PM
From: diana g	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

If the jump was caused by this Iraqi statement (Bold): .... ------------------------------------ <<<<U.S. Denies Iraqi Report of Shooting in No-Fly Zone, AFP Says ----Washington, Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Defense Department denied an Iraqi report that Iraqi anti-aircraft gunners shot at U.S. and British airplanes patrolling the northern Iraq no-fly zone, Agence France Presse reported. The initial report, from the official Iraqi news agency INA, said 10 formations from the joint U.S.-U.K. patrol force attacked Iraqi anti-aircraft positions and they returned fire, AFP said. In Washington, however, a Defense Department official said there was no incident, AFP said. Iraq's President Saddam Hussein Monday warned his southern neighbors, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, that there would be consequences if they did not stop letting U.S. and U.K. military aircraft use their bases to patrol the no-fly zone in southern- Iraq, reported Kuwait's official news agency KUNA. >>>>>> ----------------------------------- ....and if this is just Iraqi inflation of another small incident, or if it settles down quickly as usual, this Oil/OSX rally may be short lived. regards, diana

To: Mike from La. who wrote (37769)	2/18/1999 4:57:00 PM
From: dfloydr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Why is oil up suddenly? Maybe this is it .... See message # 37750: Russian Prime Minister threatening Clinton over Kosovo. Could get messy fast. Time of announcement concurrs with change in oil price direction. Potential for two fronts getting hot at once. Both having implications for oil supplies (Iraq directly, Kosovo indirectly). Russia - (see Stratfors recent analysis) - may need an outside threat to pull themselves together, and Kosovo is relatively handy. Clinton's defense department is probably a little too lean to deal well with such a combination and it certainly would not sit well with the public. NOTE: todays paper reported 40+ more US aircraft ferried over to Europe yesterday.