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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (103140)2/19/1999 5:25:00 PM
From: freeus  Respond to of 176387
 
Thanks pussycat!
Freeus



To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (103140)2/19/1999 5:35:00 PM
From: lazar921  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
To: Uncle Frank (and CTC)


Frank,
a stochastic oscillator reading (3,5) is indeed in oversold territory w < 20 being
oversold in traditional stochs readings. as of yesterday we are at 18.481. the 9 day
RSI was 32 on wednesday w > 70 being overbought and < 30 being oversold. the
only time in the last 12 months the RSI was lower was on Oct 8. of course, things can
and do remain in oversold or overbought conditions before they reverse course. i would think the TANKING is done
for the most part. a 100 mil day and a shortened week and the first ever signs of
slowing growth and mkt reaction surely wil have some kinks to unwind that can't be
fully realized in 2-3 days ( a shortened and weak volume week no less).
i believe mkt as a whole is very touchy right now.
but i can't see anywhere in history of DELL that a 30% spanking has not been pretty
near the bottom w only upside potential remaining. i do see some support in early
january that MAY be tested in the mid 70s
if mkt takes a few more little baths this could be tested.
BUT i feel that after that and the split price of 37-42$ will bring in "bargain hunters"
and traders that can ramp her up a bit and she finds mid 40s (90) as a benchmark
trading range.
worse case is one little dip like stated above and then some serious consolidation until
split time , then i do think she will be back.
as for an earnings run into may what do you think?
i started a new position at 80 and will prob just hold that until split time and see how
she goes or responds to the mid 70s once dust settles into next week.
it IS by most counts oversold, but can go lower ( i like that the down day today was
on pretty slight vol for what has transpired )
a confirmation of an uptrend of course would be to cross from neg territories into pos
as we move upward.
60s aint happening. mid 70s likely tested a few times on weak days.
i think there is enough $ that wants all over DELL and is waiting for split or for all
fallout to be done with.

BTW why are momentum players and traders (me being one) getting trashed, when they, according to you, are the ones who ramp the price up?
without momentum investing and establishing new highs and ranges, there would be buy and holders only and your DELL wouldn't have made you such a fatcat.
Bullish on DELL, into momentum.
fundamentals? what are THEY?




To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (103140)2/19/1999 5:37:00 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 176387
 
>>Revenue shortfall: Yes, but it doesn't portend anything
particularly negative for the future.<<

Not by itself, maybe, but the business of the distributors really sucked last quarter. Take a look at IM's results, CPU's results.

IM is no small player compared to DELL -- there is a good possibility that the slowdown is more than seasonal.

Those wishing to bet that it is seasonal can continue to hold the stock -- but why would Michael Dell admit that he had been too slow going after the lower priced markets, if he didn't think that is where future growth was going to be?

If the sales growth is going to be in the lower price market and not in corporate sales (and DELL is going there ) then maybe the comparison you mentioned as being specious isn't ...