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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alomex who wrote (25536)	2/19/1999 6:15:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Respond to of 42771

Microsoft Corp. has been socked with a couple of class action antitrust lawsuits that claim the company charges monopoly prices for its software. zdnet.com

To: Alomex who wrote (25536)	2/19/1999 7:00:00 PM
From: Loring	Respond to of 42771

I think you're getting existing sales mixed up with potential market. When there's a "market" for a product, we're talking what is the potential for 100% of users buying in. The "market" could only be 20% filled or perhaps 80% filled. This doesn't alter the potential of the "market". This is where "share" comes in. In a $40 billion market, Cisco at $10 Bil has 25% of the "market" share. All Eric is trying to say is --- what is the 100% potential for a mix of product peddlers.

To: Alomex who wrote (25536)	2/20/1999 7:47:00 AM
From: Jack Whitley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

<<The only way the $40 billion figure makes any sense is if it is the size of the market over the lifetime of directory services products.>> So you are calculating the size of the "lifetime of directory services products" on the historical sales in this market so far? Do you think this market might grow, and grow at a faster rate going forward? If the need for secure, cross-platform, directory-based, INTERNETWORKING applications becomes pervasive over the next few years, (and quite a few posters on this board have described scenarios for these type apps), wouldn't NDS in effect become the "API" for secure, cross-platform, directory-based, INTERNETWORKING applications? If this did happen, Novell's revenue would scale up very quickly. I'm still not convinced many Wall Street analysts understand what a robust directory means, and the majority of people still have a vision of the Internet as it exists currently, really an embryo of what it will be. One has to be somewhat visionary to make big money investing. If you wait for the analysts or (quasi)pundits to validate you, you are too late. I think $40 billion would be a very conservative estimate for the directory-based internetworking market. IF Novell executes, they are going to be huge. jww