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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (48025)	2/20/1999 8:19:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Pooh Mary! I am one of those people you describe, and in 1982 I was margined to the hilt and living on credit and as long as I could get on discounted closed-end mutual funds. Alhtough I have never made a very high salary I am now totally debt-free, with an unmortgaged house worth four times what I paid for it, and I am not about to risk my family's security by piling into an historic mania. There's a time to sow and a time to reap, and a time to go long and a time to go short. This is a time for extreme caution, when nearly everyone else is enthusiastic, even people who imagine that they are "cautiously" putting most of their retirement contributions into mutual funds. The time to be cheerful and upbeat is when everyone else is beat down, and that's not now.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (48025)	2/20/1999 8:38:00 AM
From: wlheatmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mary, You forget that most of us are not permabears. We try to think about value and reasonable fundamentals. We're bullish when we think it's the right thing to do and we try to avoid manic moves up and down. So some of us miss AMZN and YHOO, does that make us stupid? Go ask some of the folks on AMZN and YHOO who bought last month or 2 months ago. Hell, go read the DELL thread and see the stupidity that exudes on the thread. It's totally unbelievable that some of these people have the right to invest. They might as well throw their money away. I used to think there weren't much use for investment advisors. WRONG!!! Many of us can certainly use some help. Sitting on a pile of cash can't be the worst thing in the world. Somehow, society above the "middle" middle class have come to assume that being in the market and making 15-25% annually is a constitutional right. I work in a downtrodden part of America. Every day, I see people happy to have a warm cup of coffee and something to eat in a warm place. That's all they care about. They don't care if DOW is 10k or 1k. Hell, they think DOW is DOW chemical. DELL, hell, they never heard of DELL. They have their money in the bank and are happier than pig in shit to retire in a comfortable environment without much of the excesses in life that we've come to regard as "necessary". So, Dead Money? What the hell is that? You are the moron who think that to be a bull is the only way to be correct and to make serious money and somehow that equates with being happy and successful. WRONG. Of course, just my stupid opinion. mike

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (48025)	2/20/1999 9:37:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Mary: Your logic is a tad flawed. I've been messing with the tech sector for 16 years. For most of that period, I was a raving tech bull. I'm a bear because the valuations placed on stocks, particularly tech stocks, have no relationship with the real world. Those valuations reflect a blind, foolish, indeed irrational faith in a momentum approach to "investing". I spend a fair amount of time interfacing with "investors" and a variety of investment professionals. Not to stereotype, but what I have noted is that most "investors" have next to no knowledge about what is actually going on in the financial world and even less understanding of what they have "invested" in. While I hate to say it, the shocking lack of even basic understanding evidenced by many "financial advisors" takes my breath away. Worse, many money managers are momentum players. This is not investing, it is river-boat gambling, particularly at this stage of the game. While taking short positions can be painful early in a mania, once one adapts to the environment, it can in fact be quite profitable. In a normal market, it can be extremely profitable. Stock prices represent a two way street. In the tech sector, an extremely large percentage of the stocks that make it to publicly-traded status, actually flop. The ride down can be exhilarating, doubly so when it is based on superior "detective work". Now lets see,....bears and bears' kids have less fun. Don't bet on it. This aging example of the breed will have a big grin on his face when they close his box lid, based on more darned adventures than most even dream of, (including a couple of Olympics). If you want a bad case of the "envies", talk to my offspring some time, They ski, play hockey, windsurf, and my older sons also fly. They have all had a million adventures, most involving few bucks and where money was needed, it was self earned. " Work hard, play even harder" sums up their approach, which their old man likes to think is a philosophy he passed to each of them. I rarely disagree with Fleck, but I do this time. Some bears have a great deal of fun, and some even become bulls,......when stocks become cheap. Best, Earlie

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (48025)	2/20/1999 9:45:00 AM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mary, I echo the sentiments of Tomasso, Earlie and MKC that have responded to you before me. You ask us to consider what you are saying and I, for one, do. Why don't you consider a slightly different exercise. Instead of focusing on stocks, bulls/bears, intc/amd for a minute, think about what Tomasso is saying. And consider if you believe that intelligent life hangs out on this thread. Then expand your thinking to consider whether market strategies for intelligent individuals need to reflect their overall personal financial and life circumstance and goals.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (48025)	2/20/1999 10:46:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mary, for some bears a strategy of getting out early and sitting in t-bills is profitable because a bear mkt for stocks is a bull mkt for cash. I do not expect a mild bear mkt but a ferocious secular bear with declines of 60 -70%. If the bear does turn out to be severe then such a strategy will prove to be wise if not then the bulls were wise to ride it out. We shall see. The bears have history on their side. Mike

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (48025)	2/20/1999 1:59:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mary: DO YOU WANT THE TRUTH??? I don't know why anybody would invest in a tech stock. Brokerage stocks handily outperform...they're the ones who make money on this bull. Their computers are faster than yours. SCH handily outperformed msft, dell, csco. If you want an investment, buy and trade brokerage stocks, leave the rest of your money in cash.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (48025)	2/20/1999 2:27:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mary, since you consistently made me the possible exception, it would be churlish of me to argue your points. However, I hope others do. <g> And, Mary, what do we do if the baby is so ugly it curdles our beer? <vbg> MB, who loves all babies and most love him.