To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (37892 ) 2/21/1999 1:25:00 AM From: Pete Young Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
George, Some here seem to forget that the Saudis are US puppets in many repects. They would never undertake to drive oil to $8 without US approval. I doubt very much the US wants to see $8 oil, but I have been wrong before. I sometimes wonder if the Saudis have been pushed by the U.S. to lower oil prices in order to stimulate the world economy, acting in a way, much like a world central bank would. Aren't lower energy prices, at the base of every economic process in the world, like lowering interest rates? The Saudis have a large stake in the world economy--having it crash into a worldwide depression would be catastrophic to SA's main export. (In the Great Depression, I believe that oil went as low as $.10/b, equiv. to $1/b now.) As an aside, ex-oil minister of SA, Yamani was concerned in the salad days of OPEC that the more militant members, (Saddam's Iraq and Qaddifi's Libya) were going to seriously damage the world economy (maybe they did) with their anti-American feelings and greed to the detriment of all the oil producers. As to your assertion that SA is an American puppet...absolutely. For quite some time. Here's an excerpt from David Yergin's The Prize pp642-3 supporting the view that the US has considerable input on oil prices (or used to). But Washington did not want to aggressively force prices down. "The only chance to bring oil prices down immediately would be massive political warfare against countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran to make them risk their political stability and maybe their security if they did not cooperate," Kissinger, Ford's Secretary of State, explained in 1975. "That is too high a price to pay, even for an immediate reduction in oil prices. If you bring about on overthrow of the existing system in Saudi Arabia and a Qaddafi takes over, or if you break Iran's image of being capable of resting outside pressures, you're going to open up political trends that could defeat your economic objectives." Indeed there was some concern that the oil exporters might themselves suddenly drop the price substantially and thus undermine expensive new developments, such as those in the North Sea . As a result, there were discussions among the members of the International Energy Agency about establishing a "minimum safeguard price" to provide a floor to protect higher-cost energy investment in the Western world against an abrupt, perhaps politically motivated, slash in world prices. Oh, International Energy Agency, where are you now? <grin> Consider the ramifications of a fundamentalist takeover in SA, due to the stresses caused by low oil. We'd be stuck with a pretty hostile ME; Saddam's Iraq, Qaddifi's Libya, Iran's mullahs, Saudi's ??. Big percentage of the world's oil, correct? Then we could deal with ahhh, Russia, Nigeria... Nope, in a sane world, policy makers would prevent it...but then again, we did end up with Iraq, Iran, and Libya not being our best of friends under the care and feeding of the "best and brightest". Pete