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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob S. who wrote (41496)	2/20/1999 5:39:00 PM
From: Cymeed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

<<< Even though some core parts of the economy are experiencing inflationary pressure, primarily skilled wages, drops in oil prices and some food stuffs helped keep inflation to only a .1% increase for the period. Better than most economists expected. >>> I am wondering how long can the low energy price and low commodity price will last? Would we be experiencing higher inflation if those decade low oil/commodity prices swing back? I mean oil price can't go to $0, can it? Now it's $9~$10, as compared to $20+ not too long ago. Your thoughts will be appreciated.

To: Rob S. who wrote (41496)	2/20/1999 8:24:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Rob, I see that you have been short amzn. I don't know whether you are now or not. But let me tell you my guidelines. I like to use something that can be tested. affirmed or disproved. Kind of like the scientific method. I don't see the value in what the bulls of amzn always say, which can be summarized as : we bought. we made a killing. you went opposite and you got killed. therefore buy buy buy. Of course they can't say something like "buy this stock. the company is making tons of money, etc...". I would like, if others are interested to come up with some way of explaining amzn price movement. It has to be objective. It should be testable. It should have predictive ability. And if it really makes sense, it will apply to other similar stocks. Obviously, you can't explain anything about amzn by FA. So let's forget that. 1- Thursday reversal followed by Blodgett, followed by Friday gap followed by sustained buying with 3x volume. Very bullish. Prediction: more upside on Monday. Will continue on later days as long as volume is strong. Up-trend will gain momentum when other friendly anals re-it strong buy. So when should I sell, buy puts or short ? When classic TA tells me. 1- increasing price (or hovering) on low volume. That will mean a dearth of buyers. The mirror image of that happened last week. We were seeing lower prices on lower volume, and everyone including me was wondering what that meant. In hindsight, it meant scarcity of sellers. 2- after the famous anals whip up the crowd and it is confirmed by higher prices on higher volume. When that effect wanes as indicated by #1 above. I would appreciate comments, including refutation. -Sarmad