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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (16158)	2/21/1999 8:20:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

so milehigh wants me too redo my prediction for RMBS year end. ok, i will look at it...and i will try to be realistic! what is new (bad) since my last projection? the share price dropped. this was great imo. i bought more. my philosophy for owning rmbs now is to be in for the early run-up. imo you could wait 2-3 more years after every single question has been answered over and over and over again and get 40% per year share price appreciation for several years. or, you can get in early, suffer a little more volatility, but participate in the first, fast 1000+%, then later get the 40% on all of that. bernard helped me see this. we had an earnings projection scare for the next 2 quarters before rdram in PCs comes to market. big deal, rmbs hired 10 new engineers to help with the worldwide conversion to rdram. fewer nintendo's are sold in jan-june than in jul-dec. two graphics card makers using rambus tech go out of business. the reason they quit the business had nothing to do with rambus but, we did lose a little income there. we had a scare re possible short term intel delay. what difference does a month or 2 make, really? far better that they get every little thing squared away...then launch rambus rdram. volume production of rdram and peripherals is already underway. we had an analyst downgrade to hold because the share price got to the stated target of 110. he had to downgrade or increase the target price. increase was hard to do with a pe of 300+. intel announces a shortterm, interim measure to continue to use some sdram while world production of rdram takes off. no one reasonably expected the conversion to rdram to occur overnight. it is going to happen a lot faster than we previously thought though. what is new (good)? intel continues to throw $100,000,000.00 bills at dram mfrs to speed up the conversion to rdram process. competition is falling apart. last week, sldram consortium folds and throws in the towel. still no working ddrdram computer demo'ed by anyone. rmbs ceo sees ddrdram, if it does get to market, as a short lived 2-3 year interim product. ddrdram is only slightly faster than sdram and cosiderably slower than rdram even if it does work. (see next sentence!) last week, sony ceo declares high speed sdram and ddrdram unstable. says sony won't use it. sony announces using rdram in play station. btw 1999 sales of playstation are estimated at 23 million units. that is a lotta rambus royalties from one product. remember royalties from non-pc products are 2x higher. wonder what other sony products using rdram will be announced? only delay i see to more announcements will be how fast sony can line up enough rdram product. sony is a little late to the rdram table but it seems that toshiba is intent on supplying them what they need. this is totally unexpected, fabulous news right on the heels of matsushita's announcements.(see matsushita below) several more dram mfr's announce plans for volume rdram production bringing the total to 15 of the world's 19 representing well over 90% of the total dram production capacity. samsung announces a huge 5x immediate volume increase in rdram production for this year. 500,000 monthly now, 5 million rdram units monthly by june. worldwide pricing and demand for dram is up, big time up. higher price and higher volume = higher rmbs royalties. mu announces plans for volume rdram production to commence this year. mu rdram volume expected to surpass samsung next year. at least 13 other dram mfr's will be producing rdram by year end. dell, cpq, hp and just about everyone else announce rdram support and licenses. dell and cpq are receiving rdram product now. they are in a race to get to market with the hottest and fastest. rambus ceo states that rdram is the only viable memory for digital tv. matsushita announces plans to use rmbs tech in their panasonic brand consumer goods. digital tv, dvd, scanners, multi-function machines, etc. texas instruments states using rambus in high speed telephone equipment. morgan stanley and cowen both upgrade rmbs to buy. what will be next??? this week at intel developer's forum, i look for several statements reaffirming intel's committment to rambus rdram technology. intel previously stated that rambus memory is the technology of the future. well, the future is here now. i look for cowan and morgan stanley and others to start issuing dramatic increases in income projections and share price targets. we will see more and more analysts following rmbs. we will see RMBS 295 by christmas. realistically speaking of course!! what did you expect? knowing the above, i sure as hell wasn't going to lower my projection. unclewest hi jeff!

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (16158)	2/21/1999 9:09:00 AM
From: MileHigh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

OTOT I don't discount the great writers or the potato, but please do not forget about the Guinness! Probably the greatest beer there is! MileHigh