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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3402)	2/21/1999 5:35:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Thanks to Bob Grutza for providing an article which I consider to represent analyst consensus thinking for the chip recovery: moneycentral.msn.com

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3402)	2/21/1999 7:25:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Thanks Justa. Clarification. Did YOU attend the conference or is this a repost? Excellent report, btw. K

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3402)	2/21/1999 8:51:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa, thanks for the SEMInvest news. Now that you've had your fun in NY time to resume a full posting schedule here. <g> Marc

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3402)	2/21/1999 9:55:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa, Thanks for the info. I'm curious, how much did a 3-day conference with industry execs and top analysts cost? I wouldn't think it would be open to the general public at all. Next time let me know in advance and I'll buy lunch:-) BK

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3402)	2/22/1999 1:05:00 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Thank you, Justa, for an absolutely fabulous post on the SEMInvest conference. Just a couple of comments: <<During Applied Material's company presentation at SEMInvest, Joe Bronson admitted that "we don't know how to call cycles at all.">> Speaking as someone who works in the industry, I am not at all surprised to hear that comment. Semiconductor equipment executives don't have any better crystal ball than the rest of us. About the only advantages they do have are greater access to current information, both in regard to current business conditions, and in regard to customers' current plans. (IMHO) <<Despite the fact that Joe Bronson's visibility is six months at Applied Materials and the company's admitted shortcoming in forecasting, analysts -- at least ones who spoke openly on the topic -- are forecasting a multi-year upcycle in the sector.>> I think I have an idea why this is. I have seen a chart of industry expansion/contraction by year which showed that the recent period from 1996 through 1998, in which we had two down years in a three year period, was quite unusual in industry history. It is much more normal to have had single down years, followed by expansions which were considerably longer than one year. I thinks it's quite likely that the analysts have seen similar charts, and it's quite natural, when viewing such a chart, to assume that the industry will return to the "normal" pattern. However, there is no law of physics which guarantees this, and as you have pointed out, there are plausible risks which could derail the scenario. I think it behooves those who invest in this sector to think long and hard about how much of their portfolios they want to devote to it, from a risk-management point of view. I also think that your suggestion about looking at the sustainability of the level of industry expansion as it develops is a good one.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3402)	2/22/1999 2:22:00 PM
From: C_Johnson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Hello Justa, There is one other place where you can get a complete SEMInvest '99 writeup - infras.com Yes, we are in the business of selling this material so you have to pay to get the issue. It should be out later this week. Our SEMInvest writeup will be similar to the writeup we did on the ISS Conference in January issue of the Monthly Letter. What did you think about the comments Ali Irani made about Samsung's DRAM cost structure? Also, there is a shortened version (22 out of 130 slides) from the tutorial we gave at the opening of SEMInvest '99 available at this URL: infras.com The tutorial slides are free. Regards, Carl infras.com