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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (3413)	2/22/1999 6:34:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Richard: Re: "About the only advantages they do have are greater access to current information, both in regard to current business conditions, and in regard to customers'current plans." You hit the nail on the head here. If the executives at the large cap companies were on top of the cycle there would be far more insider buying at the bottom. The huge spike in these stocks in early January was the result of some analysts learning from AMAT that they had far greater bookings than guidance. Bronson said he discovered they had 800m in bookings when he returned from Christmas vacation. "I think I have an idea why this is. I have seen a chart of industry expansion/contraction by year which showed that the recent period from 1996 through 1998, in which we had two down years in a three year period, was quite unusual in industry history." Bingo again. But I believe the analysts have done there homework enough to suggest we are at the beginning of an upcycle with some legs. The duration of the cycle is the only issue. Air pockets are a distinct possibility. These large cap puppies are priced for perfection.