Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (6808)	2/21/1999 10:50:00 PM
From: Magnatizer	Respond to of 99985

dennis, i agree thread, market magnets 127.0.0.1:3456/SI/~wsapi/investor/reply-7954554 ht david

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (6808)	2/21/1999 11:29:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Dennis, I have also noticed that FLECK is not a great timer. I have noticed that many fundamentalists are not very good timers and can be off years especially with such a long running bull market. To some degree it will also work in reverse once a big bear starts whenever it does. However BULLs timing will not be as bad as BEARs timing since bull markets lasts much longer than bear markets. Ill leave those strong predictions to others. Interesting that JERRY FAVORs is calling for a possible move to the 10000-11000 range by April. I dont see it but like I just said, Ill leave those strong calls to others. He did mention a top around MAR 9, and I have a top around MAR 1. Seeya

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (6808)	2/21/1999 11:42:00 PM
From: Electric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

dennis, I too agree with you. I think DELL has tripped a bit and will have to make adjustments to continue on the path that they have been on and that we are accustomed to. I think things are far from over, and the same pattern that DELL went into after last earnings ought to follow, a slowdown for a period of time, then a trading range style of activity followed by a likely catch-up move in a few months down the road. I am not so sure that the NAZ might have problems, think of the run-up that it has had. Somthing has to give. I did find it interesting how the analyst gave the green light to the net stocks. I cant say that I am dissapointed though. I am looking at DELL leaps, 2001 near the money. Buy when the beta releases and make alot of cash.. See ya...

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (6808)	2/22/1999 12:49:00 AM
From: BubbaFred	Respond to of 99985

May want to consider that no one is wrong all the time and neither will they be right all the time.

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (6808)	2/22/1999 2:16:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

I didn't mean to imply that Fleck called DELL's demise nor am I saying that their reign is over. However thier rise to a PE of over 100 was ridiculous to anyone buying the stock for any reason other than catching the momentum. DELL has made it mathematically impossible to resume that kind of growth per share much less the earnings suprises of the past just by virtue of the last and now soon to come stock splits, it is called dilution and DELL is now diluted. Heck I can double a dollar, and 2 dollars and 4 dollars but I couldn't double 2.57 Billion which what their outstanding shares will be after March 5th. Post split earnings of 52 cents a share with no dividend is not worth $40 either. As far as their missing one time, I beg to differ. PC were forecasted to become a comodity a long time ago and that day is coming and coming soon. FreePC is giving them away if you take a survey just like cell phones for signing up for service. Pretty soon you will get one for signing up with internet service agreements. If SUNW has thier way, your computer will be little more than a glorified telephone/TV to hook into a central server that has all the processors etc. As I said around X-mas, all my friends got new computers as did I and not one of us bought an Intel chip based machine. We either built our own or bought one from a mom and pop shop and got twice the machine for 1/3 of the money. Us military types have to be frugal. Now if I were a Dellionaire, maybe I would have sprung 3-4K for a pentium but I am not so I spent $950 for a K6-2 350 with 256 SDRAM, 8 meg video card with TV tuner, 128 Soundblaster, good speakers, 17" monitor etc. I couldn't have had that for 5 times the price at the time from DELL as they always short you in one thing or another. The AF says we have a contract with DELL but my base has all Micron and some GTWs. MD himself said the next 2 quarters growth would be in the single digits. That, if I recall is what MU said in 96 about the DRAM market. That is not what PE 79 stocks grow at. Yes DELL will rise again as people keep buying before they slowly come to their senses just as other high PE stocks have done in the past on theri way down(remember, I played KEA and still do(old PE was 80+ - now 23 six months later while growth HASN"T slowed)) DELL will stay a corporate leader in their nitch and hopefully will move quickly in their storage areas etc. Say what you want about CPQ and Pfeiffer but at least he saw this jig was up last year and moved into other areas so he could get a head start. They have internet, servers, etc with their latest aquisitions (I don't own either stock by the way) This may be bad or good as trying to juggle multiple areas is tough to do as HWP has proven but at least they aren't a one horse show. I did not mean to start a discussion on individual stocks. I did want to say that there are multiple signs that although people have been screaming wolf/bear for years, the scat is fresher and the bushes are starting to move when we aren't looking. I don't want to wait and see his tonsils before I decide it could be true. As I said, look at how many stocks are above their long term moving averages or make it even easier, how many are above where they were last year. The market indexes are being skewed and even some of the generals are starting to show weaknesses but I guess this is all an illusion. As they said in west world, nothing can go wrong, go wrong, go wrong.....For some reason pilots used to get nervous when I told them that too. <ggg> You know I trade my charts so really I could careless if DELL has the earnings of AMZN or GE, if it moves, I go with the flow if the chart looks right but I won't hold it for retirement. My points were A.) I invited him here as he does have good points that would spur discussion (heck mine got 5 messages from multiple people and even brought Electric out of hiding <g>) Just goes to show that DELL is still a religion not a stock B.) The charts, internals of the market etc are all showing that things are getting worse not better. C.) this is soon going to be earnings warning season so the bias will be down anyway. I am sorry I forgot your name already while writing this long winded reply but to the poster that said we are in a trading range, yes we are, but we are approaching an area in that range where trendlines are converging and the market has to make up its mind as to which lines will hold and which will break. I find it better to have the majority of my stocks on a watchlist in the direction of the trend so I try to identify the trend ahead of time to take advantage of it. It is also good to see a head fake when one is there so you can by puts on the cheap for the subsequent ride down while everyone else is buying that dip. I like selling calls to those that think thier favorite will never fall. They always forget that standard line on every stock news release, 10Q etc. These results are no guarantee of future results...... I could care less how many people agree with me. I took a lot of grief for saying MU wasn't worth 80 and I should jump aboard for the ride to 125. Uh, yeah, right. The factory is just up the street and I talk to the workers and know thier future (nothing can go wrong, go wrong..); HWP is a bit further up the block, (nothing can go wrong, go wrong..) Gee, I haven't talked to the Albertson's crew lately, ... Thanks for the dialog, we need more of this here I am not saying the sky is falling or that we will drop this week or go to 5000 next month. I am saying that this is not eh samne market we had 18 months ago or even a year ago. I guess this is where all those that were in diapers during the 70s find out what a market is like that doesn't shoot straight up for 12 years.(me, well grade school in St. Louis anyway, but I remember the ex-McDonnell Douglas aeronautical engineers bagging groceries at the super markets and pumping gas at the corner station <ng>) Good Luck, Lee