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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (6816)	2/22/1999 2:37:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

On the same note - exchange2000.com Dear Sir or Madam, I e-mailed you a while back regarding Micron Technology's shake and bake financial reporting. for whatever reason, CNBC decide that it wasn't news. However, the New York Times thought it was important enough to put on the front page of their Sunday edition. Well, I have another story that is many times larger than that one. PC revenues in the PC industry shrank in 1998 relative to 1997 for the first time in the history of the PC. How do I know?, the billion dollar news organization asks the e-mailer? Simple deduction. PC units were up between 12-15% per IDC and a few other sources. I'm sure you can dig up a few more sources than I can. ASPS were down 20% per Best Buy, 25% per the Intel CEO, 20-30% per the box resellers, 25% per the DOC estimate figured into inflation and at least about 20% per basic common sense. Now, stick with me here, the math is extremely complex. 1.15 * .8 = .92. Did you catch it? If units grew 15% over 1997, then we have to factor the increased unit calculation by .15 and we get 1.15. If we know units dropped 20%, which is the low end of any number reported that I am aware of, we get $0.80. Multiply the two and we get .92, with 1.00 representing 1005 of revenues in 1997. Of course, this isn't completely free. You should do a little research yourself and try to nail down unit growth and asp declines more accurately. I am only sure of one thing. PC revenues were down for the first time since the PC was invented. A decrease of possibly 8% or more in PC revenues and NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT IT? In fact, they are talking about GROWTH! Unreal. Fact is fiction and fiction is fact. This is a breaking story. Few stories would be, or even could be, bigger. Maybe only Y2K. OK, you have another shot. Or, rather, you can do nothing and watch it get published somewhere else, just like you did with the Micron piece.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (6816)	2/22/1999 7:12:00 AM
From: Monty Lenard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I could care less how many people agree with me. Well FWIW Lee I agree with you. People think all this money going into IRA's etc. in going into the market. I think that a lot of people are coming to realize that the fund groups has MM accounts and a lot of money is going into those and WILL go into non stock investments. K6-2 350 I have recently bought 3 of AMD processors and don't care if I evey own another INTC processor. The AMD's run GREAT for a lot less money. I actually have a PII 300 MMX machine next to an AMD 300. The AMD 300 will run my scans as fast as the Intel. Fleck called DELL's Everyone's favorite thing to say is that Fleck has been wrong for 3 years. He has been right ....just early because it is very hard to guage just how far a Mania can take the market. Also, we tend to believe others think the same way we think. Because of that we wrongly believe MOST others will react the same as we do. Don't happen because the crowd is always wrong. Hang in there.