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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (103706)	2/22/1999 12:06:00 PM
From: SecularBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Michael, if unit shipments are not as important as net income (a point on which I agree with you), couldn't it be argued that DELL's increased profitability (in net income and margins) is the result of DELL cherry-picking the best parts of the market? Otherwise, how could DELL be making more money, on less sales (as you claim)? Thanks for the analysis (in advance). LoD

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (103706)	2/22/1999 12:11:00 PM
From: D. Swiss	Respond to of 176387

MB, "The top five U.S. OEMs improved their collective market share by almost 6 percent in 1998 with Dell and Gateway climbing the fastest." This is a direct quote from the article, How could you possibly interpret this statement as losing market share. The way I see it you are either a liar or clueless, take your pick. :o) Drew

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (103706)	2/22/1999 1:34:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

MB, I checked the inventories reported by CPQ in Q4 1998. It looks like they had 3.9 weeks of inventory. But I believe that is INTERNAL INVENTORY. The units they ship to the channel are invoiced sales. So it is not possible to tell what their actual channel stuffing is without additional information from IDC the CC etc. Where did you get your 3.9 weeks of channel stuffing? My estimate of their channel stuffing was based on their IDC numbers compared with the rest of the industry. Your point on revenue growth versus unit growth is correct for AP. A post today on the Asia Pacific market using IDC numbers indicates that revenues fell 5.9% on unit growth increase of 7% over Q4 of 1997. This shows an average ASP of $1,453 in 1998 versus an ASP of $1,641. The decline in ASP is 11.41 % which is greater than the increase in unit shipments. So your point is valid for Asia Pacific. JK