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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (48386)	2/23/1999 8:51:00 AM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie/Mike: Earlie appreciate your comments on monetary growth (other thread) and have a few questions. The only bond market I follow is 10 and 30yr tbills. Is this a small portion of the actual bond market ? if so, what percentage and are there any good sites to find info on the bond market. Also, any books you could recommend to help in my understanding of bonds / futures / commodities would be most helpful. On a different note, when the Japanese model collapsed (late 80's) what do you feel precipitated it and what was the growth rate of their money supply up to and following the crash. thanks

To: Earlie who wrote (48386)	2/23/1999 8:53:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Opportunity. As noted earlier, we are into the hiatus period (before Q1 warnings arrive). Additionally, the "tout-fests" are in full swing. Even better, the pros are arm-twisting the analysts to utter bullish bleats so they can continue to dump. The G7 fill the front pages with positive sound bites, but privately worry about whether ANYTHING can really be done about "the problem" except delay its final assault. DLJ puts out a buy on MU this a.m. as Dram producers are "returning to profitability" (Samsung just reported an excellent bump, but the comparison was a lay-up). Bless their pointed noggins. Too bad they don't dig a bit. The reality is less than bullish. - PC sales growth continues to fall and is unlikely to rebound for the foreseeable. Since the majority of chips are destined for the confines of a PC box, it's hard to see where increased Dram demand will come from. - Worse, the box-builders over-produced in Q4, so PC inventories are bloated. They are not going to be on a "chip buying binge" for the next quarter or two. - Every single memory producer is on a shrink-related ramp of even more production. While the goofs who can barely count point to fab closings, (almost all have been fabs that are out-moded), a DOUBLING of production is in process, as a result of shrink. Much of this massive growth in production capability is coming on stream, just in time to meet up with a shrivelling demand from the PC industry. If ever there was a formula for a disaster in pricing, this is it. - Rambus is looking more and more as if it is going to arrive still-born. DDR doesn't require expensive new equipment, and since it addresses all current micro standards, and is FAST, it is likely to carry the day. The box builders have long memories and do not want a return of any form of INTC domination. DDR will ship in the near term in 128 mbit form. Hello MU? Would you mind telling us just how big and firm a commitment to Rambus you provided to INTC in return for that $500.0 million tranche? A "significant commitment" you say? Oh dear. - How quickly the bulls forget. April draws nigh, and there are two big dump trucks backing up to the market's "sell' chutes. Fortunately, the pros have longer memories. The slow but steady acquisition of some MU puts with a decent amount of time makes wonderful sense under these circumstances. Best, Earlie