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Biotech / Medical : Munch-a-Biotech Today -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (191)	2/23/1999 11:45:00 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3158

Part of our difference comes from my perspective as a biotech investor rather than as a pure arbitrageur. I don't mind holding a small amount of Cantab stock for a year or so. If I was an institutional investor and concerned about this, I could always short the Cantab stock and likely even get interest on the proceeds. (I don't know whether the Cantab ADS's are shortable by individuals - I would guess not easily). I completely agree that you need to discount the milestones significantly for the chances that they are never earned (in addition to the time-value discount). It is significant here, however, that a $3m milestone is for Phase I, which is unlikely to fail. The Phase II's are much more problematic, of course. I actually feel there's still a chance that a liquidation will never happen and that someone will take out the company or use the shell before a liquidation happens. Peter