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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ms. X who wrote (14572)	2/23/1999 8:21:00 PM
From: wizzards wine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34816

Did someone say Head Fake and Wine????? Hi Princess!!!!!!!! I've had my wine and will not go into "head fakes" as last time I got into trouble :-) Later Wizzie

To: Ms. X who wrote (14572)	2/23/1999 9:06:00 PM
From: Ms. X	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34816

Just as a historical lookie loo. I gawked at the short term indicators et al during July 1998, prior to the Dow breaking down on it's chart. It is always interesting to see how the indicators played out in previous declines. I don't have dates as I'm not feeling that adventurous tonight, just curious. 10 week. (10week) Rallied to 52% after declining in June. Reversed down in July through August from 52% all the way down to 16%. It then had a quick reversal up to 22% in August but reversed down to 10% in September. This was the bottom of the 10 week selloff. It then reversed up and rallied to 36% that very month. High Low Index (hilo) Rallied in July from 28% marked in June, to 64%. It then reversed down through August into September making the bottom of the selloff at 6%. It then rallied that month through October to 22%. OTC Index (BPOTC) July, the OTC reversed up from 40% rallying to 46% (only a 3 box rally). It then reversed down in July and fell to the low made in September at 10%. It then rallied up to 30%. Optional Bullish Percent.(BPOPTI) In July the OPTI rallied from 40% to 50% and then reversed down to the low of 10% in August. In September it rallied to 36%. NYSE BP (BPNYSE) The NYSE Reversed down at 72% in May and didn't reverse up until it hit the low in September at 16% In all cases, save the NYSE BP, the indicators had already fallen from their highs made earlier in the spring. The rallies in July were short lived and the reversal brought the indexes to new lows. The NYSE BP went defensive in May prior to the Dow rally and didn't reverse up until September (prior to the DOW by the way). The DJIA during this time. In July the Dow made an all time high and reversed down in August. It puttered around for a bit until it gave a triple bottom sell signal in October. Then it fell as you all remember too vividly. Important here. The DOW chart DID NOT give you warning of the fall. It did give the triple bottom sell signal but if I remember correctly it was the same day it crashed. The Dow chart didn't look promising by any means but if you used the Dow chart in September and October to guide your way, you lost. The NYSE BP and others told you in July we were headed for trouble. All indicators were on sell signals and declining. NYSE BP was the most insistent of them all. This is why we say if we get a reversal in the short term indicators that is what it is, short term. Stops must be in place, hard stops and buy only good strong stocks. Even with indicators at low levels, they can reverse down again and using last year as a guide, to not nice levels (until they reverse up again into Bull Alert). So, for those just watching the DOW chart, you are taking your chances here. This is why we look at the underlying indicators that tell us what the broader market is doing. Last year we didn't have a sell in the Dow Jones bond average either and I don't believe the AD line was this bad. In fact I know it wasn't. Sentiment wasn't this screwy as well. If we get a reversal in the short term indicators but not enough sponsorship to reverse the Optional BP or NYSE BP, that's big big trouble. If they (long term indicators) do reverse, you can be less defensive and position yourself accordingly. The fat lady never sings in this game folks, she aint' got no vocal cords. Have I preached enough? Go look at the charts I just described. Go look at the Dow Jones 20 (DJBB). Make your own opinion, be careful. Jan I am