To: DARPA who wrote (848 ) 2/24/1999 12:28:00 PM From: ztect Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1541
You are certainly projecting very long term.... And playing "chances"....since the most optimistic projection for Chinese internet users is only 10 mil of that 300mil by yk with less optimistic projections being around 4 mil. Yes the market may be there ONE day....but that day further undermines the timeliness and the veracity of GTCI's claims. Plus currently per one article I read there are currently 14,000 other ISP's competing for this small internet user group. And as the market place develops, large ISP's like AOL are sitting and waiting, sticking their toes in the water, and will be a presence in 5 to 10 years as, and if, the market does actually materialize. There are so many risks involved that seemed to be beyond your limited analytic skills to even contemplate yet even weigh. Now of those 300 mil, how many can afford the internet usage fees on their limited incomes? And how many have computers? If and as wages rises, will foreign investment move to cheaper sources of labor? Will their being a greater schism between rural and urban China? between the haves and the have nots? Without a controlling central China authority will ethnic division split China into separate countries like in the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia? Again there are many many more factors and risks to consider when investing in foreign and non open countries...just look at all the money pilfered from big companies in Russia and Malaysia by corrupt government officials and Russian business people. Aagin all you are doing is taking "chances" which seems a bit foolhardy when there are so many better short and long term investment opportunities closer to home. Sincerely, ztect Or, in other words, where is the real market?