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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock bull who wrote (105065)	2/25/1999 4:01:00 PM
From: SecularBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Your analysis of DELL's near-term prospects is right-on, IMHO. Good post! LoD

To: stock bull who wrote (105065)	2/25/1999 4:08:00 PM
From: jhg_in_kc	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

<<IMO, the stock will trade in a tight range this quarter and not make a significant upward move until Dell demonstrates that the company can resume its 50% growth. However, I would not be surprised to see the stock sell-off another 10 to 20 points.>> This is essentially what I have come to believe. For the record I sold 1/3 of Dell before earnings and 1/3 the next day. I am also reassessing my use of margin just like Long on Dell. Itoo was able to run up a margin debt bigger than the amount of money I started off with thanks largely to Dell. I now think I was too reckless. I have tried to learn from my mistakes though and they have led me to diversify as follows: I now hold AOL, EMC, SUNW, MSFT, and 20 % in RMBS, GTW, and YHOO. I plan to re-enter Dell in the low 70s but I am also wondering if I should not wait until the prospects for next quarter's earnings become clearer. I don't know whether I made a mistake or not. jhg

To: stock bull who wrote (105065)	2/25/1999 4:36:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

SB- I have to disagree..look at today's action...with all going on (2 downgrades, major publicity about Dell dragging the market down...Dell "not being able to meet future growth expectations", terrible bond market reaction (Japanese repatriation & big Fed bonds floating before April tax payments kick in..)...and Dell couldn't even break 80...In my mind, it's clear that many of the "weak hands" in this stock have walked off...c'mon, if you believed all "sell" arguments that has been said the past two weeks...you would have sold too (and you did !)....The substantial remaining bulls believe it was just a blip, and, IMO, it will take a 35% y-o-y revenue growth quarter, and significant lower earnings and EPS growth to shake the trees again....you sure as heck aren't going to get that in Q1 '99..Additionally, IDC/Dataquest will report whopping market share gains for Dell in late April..that will help the run... If there were still serious problems with Dell here... it would have tanked more today (intraday, end-of-day)....Compaq sold off as much as Dell today.........Getting through the 70's is going to take a major market sell-off...and I predict, even if so, other big cap techs will sell off (% basis) even more...However, there is no major market sell-off here, IMO...today's bounce was encouraging.... The action around the last earnings report, despite the big drop,was fairly typical (the sell-off always happens....sometimes 15%, sometimes 20%...this time it sold off a bit more...due to the "disappointment"..but, then again, it was up an obscene amount during the quarter, too).. Re: Traders abandoning the stock permanently.......Traders posses incredibly short-term memories....and will get on the next train that looks like its moving...They will come back for the earnings run...nothing has changed there...where's the proof that they have abandoned the stock? (except for the short-term, right after earnings...they always do...and then they come back for the surest play around...Dell a few weeks before earnings...) I do give you that Michael Dell & Meredith will have to do a bang-up job at the early April analyst meeting, but if the stock is still lagging at that time (like last year during this quarter...6-7 weeks of dead money before a rapid rise)....it will rally after the meeting... A real joker is the announcement last week...Could hike the stock a few points and it could plateau at a higher level (than 80/81)...before the next earnings run... We are poised now for a nice rally soon....lots of cash on the sideline, bonds have gone about as far as they are going to go, earnings improving, economic fundamentals great... So, needless to say, I don't share your vision here...We'll see soon enough...