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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (105364)	2/26/1999 1:38:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Chuzz- As you were writing your post on the Dell thread...I was posting the EXACT same question on the Compaq thread....to a salesman from a VAR (Bretsky).... Great minds... Yes, this definitely puts things in a different light (perhaps)...remember..the big thrust of Dell's downward slide has been ("the others are catching up!")...if the (nuetral/bearish) analysts are wrong... Let me rephrase, I think most longs expects a little erosion in Dell's advantage overtime...with the large portion being maintained...the surprise "38%" revs. was taken as a proxy by some analysts (and a few bulls, and DEFINENTLY bears) that other competitors direct models were catching on, and they were closing the gap...this, if true, could have serious long-term consequences..which already may have started kicking in..... Now, it appears that Dell missed expectations due to a weak January (for the entire industry)...and that 4Q numbers from Dataquest/IDC were skewed not only due to seasonality, but also due to some stuffing...For a true (Dell) long, this appears to be really good news...Others are trying to implement direct, and it is making hardly a dent in the basic industry growth relationship: Industry=x, Compaq=1.5x, Dell=3/4x, etc.. You should read some of Compaq's thread today (Bretsky's posts)...very enlightening concerning Compaq's problems (from a VAR perspective) in implementing the direct model.....Summation: HP is going to put severe pressure on CPQ for indirect (VAR), and, in Bretsky's view, CPQ will not be able to compete with Dell in direct...

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (105364)	2/26/1999 1:44:00 PM
From: SirVinny	Respond to of 176387

CTC, your intuition may eventually be proven to be correct afterall. From reading your posts over the last few weeks I noticed that you seem to be inquisitive and have done considerable homework in collecting data from various sources and analyzing all this informatiom which led you to form a well thought out opinion. My question, which pees me off at this point, is why do these fat-cat analysts NOT do their homework?? Channel stuffing - if you saw it, why didn't they?? SirVinny

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (105364)	2/26/1999 3:05:00 PM
From: HDC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

CTC: Excellent point Re: Channel Stuffing! This is the reason I left Compaq for Dell early last year. Back then, CPQ management said that sales were fine with only to find out later what we all know was the BIG INVENTORY GLUT OF 1998. You have to watch CPQ carefully! Best, Duncan