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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (3510)	2/26/1999 5:58:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Kirk: Re: "I don't have the cajones to short it but you seem to be doing well!" This is not something I recommend to anyone. It worked for me but I paid the price on a mental level. But I will short no longer in this sector for now. Time to look to go long again. "I guess the trick is they usually overshoot so you have to be good at picking that point of over bought to short and make money." Yes, I have traded the large caps long and short for the past month and saw them tank without a position either long or short in them. But if I were a real hero I would have been short them all on the way down. Rode KLIC down for five points. Thought about shorting more when the market was making near new highs but one can't go on vacation short in a bull market even if there is a correction ongoing and not in this sector for sure!!! But, hey, we have limited information here. I posted my summary of the SEMInvest conference and you will recall the three legs to the stool: (1) DRAM pricing; (2) PC growth of 14% this year; and (3) economic stability. All three were priced to perfection. See my post. EVERY ANALYST I TALKED TO WAS BUYING INTO THE PERFECT SCENARIO. As a contaray indicator, that should tell you something. Get a downgrade of MU on DRAM pricing concerns and Compaq guiding the analysts lower, the market just kicked two legs out for the time being. Pop goes the balloon and down she goes HARD. There was no way anyone here could have known this before hand. We anticipated it as a possibility here. I said anything that threatens the perfect scenario would knock these stock for a loop. This sector moves fast in either direction. I thought about going long for a trade this morning but it became apparent to me in watching AMAT open that we were going down hard. And when the big boys run for the exit, you just show them the door and step out of the way.