To: JRI who wrote (105383 ) 2/26/1999 2:26:00 PM From: Kenneth Aird Respond to of 176387
To All: I just listened to a real time webcast of MD promoting his book, although the book was only mentioned once. Most of it was things he has said many times recently. A few items that were new to me: Projections for $395 Billion in computer and electronics e-commerce in the year 2003. Mike thinks this may be low. No plans for mergers or acquisitions, but will do alliances with cable and phone companies for high speed networking. India, Indonesia and even Russia are big markets long term. Forcast for number of PCs in the world 325 Million now 700 Million in 5 years 1.4 Billion in 10 years PC will never be as cheap as a toaster because it costs $2 Billion to build a semiconductor plant. Seemed to be holding to the line that Dell will not compete in the sub $1000 market soon, although did indicate that the price trend is down. Microsoft lawsuit. Won't comment on how it will end, but pointed out that 15 years ago, customers were demanding a more uniform operating system environment and having one has reduced software costs greatly for the industry. On competing with companies that have own field service like IBM and Compaq. Dell rated best in service now. More and more service will be done at the factory and online. Best solution is to build a product that never fails. What about sub $400 machines? His basic argument was that consumers will eventually find applications that do not run well on these machines and end up replacing them with more expensive ones. For example Windows 2000. I did not feel a lot of conviction in this argument. More convincing to me was his follow on argument that the value of the PC users time is much higher than the difference in the cost of a faster PC that makes them more productive. Here is the item that was completely new for me. What about Apples many colors? Michael admitted that Apple had given the industry a wakeup call with their focus on design and said "stay tuned, we're working in that area" Regarding Dells rate of growth, he pointed out that it is a balancing act because growing too fast can cause you to exceed your ability to grow the organization, as happened to Dell in the past, but if you grow too slowly you become irrelevant (as happened to Apple?). Ken