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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Byron who wrote (3762)	2/27/1999 5:17:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81069

March put buyers appear to agree w/ you cboe.pcquote.com

To: Tom Byron who wrote (3762)	2/28/1999 11:10:00 AM
From: chevalier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81069

While I really don't hold any opinion as to the direction of gold as it has been in a neutral trading range for some time there are some technical arguements that can be made for some metals to the upside. Obviously the charts on platinum and palladium are bullish and I think silver is as well. As far as the base metals go, zinc and nickel are on the threshold of making upside breakouts and the cobalt market has already been cornered and the price has skyrocketed. Oil appears to be basing (something which could go on for some time IMO). Its really the food commodities that are sinking the CRB level(not to mention copper) but this is not happening at a time when crop forecasts and supplies are at dangerously low levels. Most crops are recording record size harvests this year and if history is a dictation then you can bet the a hell of a lot of farmers are going to go out of business due to the low prices and the crop prices are going to snap back with a vengeance when its least suspected. Shorting the food commodities at a time when the prices of the commodities is below the costs is a dangerous move. The volatility in these commodities usually indicates that a snap back rally will come and that will not be preceeded by a long basing pattern in price but rather a V bottom. This bear market has been going on for some time and has been nothing short of ruthless but my bet would be that those playing the future markets from the long side looking out 1 year or more are going to be a lot of money. Even Greenspan in his testimony stated that it is unlikely that commodities are going to continue their downtrend at the brutal pace they have been. Gold: gotta love that classic triangle formation that is getting the close to the brink of exploding. Only wish I knew what direction its going to go.