Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LastShadow who wrote (9345)	2/28/1999 7:59:00 AM
From: Dave Shares	Respond to of 43080

Scott, It will work out for you It will take more time than you wanted it to But when it happens The time you waited will will not be important What will be important is that you wound up in a place and in a situation of your choosing, one that will give you happiness and satisfaction Things happen for a reason, and have a way of working out for the best We all want you to be happy and fulfilled David

To: LastShadow who wrote (9345)	2/28/1999 9:18:00 AM
From: LastShadow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 43080

A couple of market timing systems for the technogeeks out there... The DRTB Stock Market Timing System DRTB is a simple weekly system. It only requires one computation over the weekend. All mutual fund trades are then performed before the market close on Monday. DRTB uses two pieces of data, the 90-day Treasury Bill yield (TB) and the Federal Reserve Discount Rate (DR). Formulae D = DR - TB S = 9 week exponential smoothing of D which is computed with the following formula. S = S(L) + 0.2 * (D - S(L)); Where: S(L) = S(Last week's value). * = Multiplication. Buy Signal Buy when S > 0; Sell Signal Sell when S < 0; Historical Results This simple timing strategy has gained 16.4% annually against the S&P 500 with a beta of 1.5 (modeling the Rydex Nova Fund) from March 1942 to Sept. 1997. This is double the return of the S&P 500 over the same period. 80% of the trades were profitable and the largest loss was only 7%. Drawdown was substantially reduced versus the S&P 500's 48% drawdown in 1974. Against the NASDAQ 100 from March 1983 to Sept. 1997 (modeling the Rydex OTC fund), this strategy gained 16.5% annually with 11 trades. 100% of the trades were profitable. Maximum drawdown was only 18%, far less than the 40% drawdown the NASDAQ 100 suffered in 1987. The T87 Stock Market Timing System The T87 Stock Market Timing System was published in the August 1997 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine (TASC). This system is an example of one that requires a computer to compute, as you'll see from the complicated formulae below. Since 1/1/96 it has gained 92% vs. the S&P 500 with a 1.5 beta (modeling Rydex Nova) with only a -8.7% maximum drawdown. That gain computes to a 51.1% compounded annual return (CAR)! T87 Formulae Data A = NYSE Advances, D = NYSE Declines, NH = NYSE New Highs, NL = NYSE New Lows, UV = NYSE Advancing Volume, DV =NYSE Declining Volume, SP = Standard & Poor's 500 index close. Formulae XNL = 3 day exponential moving average of NL HNL = Highest XNL in last 40 days. LNL = Lowest XNL in last 40 days. RNL = HNL - LNL; NLS = (((XNL - LNL)/RNL)100.0)-50; NLS_LAST = NLS value for previous trading day. XNH = 3 day exponential moving average of NH, HNH = Highest XNH in last 10 days. LNH = Lowest XNH in last 10 days. RNH = HNH - LNH; NHS = (((XNH - LNH)/RNH)100.0)-50; ADR = A/D; ADRV = UV/DV; DAR = D/A; DARV = DV/UV; DARV_LAST = DARV on previous trading day. SP_LOW = lowest SP since last sell signal. SP_HIGH = highest SP since last buy signal. Buy Signals (NLS <= 0) and (NHS >= -10) and (SP > SP_LOW * 1.0125) and one of the following is true. 1. (ADR >= 1.2 for 2 days out of 4 days) and (ADR >= 1.0 for 4 days out of 4 days). 2. (ADRV >= 7.5) Sell Signals (NLS >= 30) and (NLS - NLS_LAST < 30) and (NHS <= 0) and (SP < SP_HIGH * 1.0125) and one of the following is true: 1. DAR >= 1.9 for 3 days out of 4 days. 2. DAVR >= 10 and DAVR_LAST >= 2.2. 3. DAVR >= 2.2 and DAVR_LAST >= 10. lastshadow

To: LastShadow who wrote (9345)	2/28/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: Rick Faurot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

LS, You've got some good ideas here. Doing a fund is one of them. I would make a few points from my own perspective. I do other things that are creative and productive and I have been able to offer my services on a pro bono basis to my church and to friends neighbors and relatives who couldn't afford me otherwise. These goodwill projects have enriched me more than any normal business opportunity would have. I have a couple of major pro bono projects in the works right now and I am very excited about them. The other thing is, I love trading. I look forward to sitting down to my computers every morning and seeing what the market is going to do. And my portfolio is still in negative territory so far. For some reason I think I'm going to be successful. Meanwhile I love the game. The noted philosopher Joseph Campbell said "Follow your bliss." Meaning find what you love and pursue it full force. What's not clear to me from your posts is what you really love. The caligraphy/graphics thing sounded cool. You seem to love charts and neural nets and stock analysis. But I am baffled why you'd want a job at some faceless corporation that lacks the high ethical and creative values you put such store in. Personally, I wouldn't be caught dead working for General Motors. I've had my own business for years and it has served me well. I never figured it was going to answer all my questions and make me happy. It did its job and I've been grateful for that. I do think you are helping yourself by posting your questions on this thread. One of the things I love about the internet is the way that it facilitates the flow of ideas and creative energy. Keep bouncing the ideas around and before you know it your new job will be happening all around you. best regards, Rick F

To: LastShadow who wrote (9345)	2/28/1999 7:46:00 PM
From: Ron	Respond to of 43080

I like trading a lot...and with the good living I earn doing it, am able to support several fine charities and do some volunteer work to boot. Admittedly its not for everyone. Profits from daytrading also go into longer term position investments. I had a rewarding career working for corporations that sometimes did very good things..sometimes did not. No regrets there. But I get a great deal of pleasure out of being in business for myself. There are a lot of ways to make a living that damage society and the environment. Daytrading is not one of them, imho.