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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Razorbak who wrote (38479)	2/28/1999 9:45:00 AM
From: paul feldman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Contra Costa officials are urging TOSCO to close their refinery in the East Bay. Second fatal explosion there in three years.

To: Razorbak who wrote (38479)	2/28/1999 2:00:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Razor; ie: << the "Cartel Dilemma">> <<...the only way to instill long-term discipline amongst a cartel is for one or two of the largest players to punish the cheaters by flooding the market and driving prices precipitously down in the short term to enforce compliance.>> I would think that if that was/is the Saudi intention - then we may now be at the pivotal point given the upcoming OPEC meeting. It just might be the last attempt to force new cuts, or total adherence to prior cuts. But, if OPEC doesn't agree to new cuts, or total compliance; are the Saudi's really in a position to take the political, social and financial risks of playing their ''trump card'' any further ? Seems like we've had more than a few members cry uncle; if Iran's baseline quota problems can be resolved, then the expectations of better compliance, or new cuts looks high to me. Also; not that I would want this solution; but if we would have a new freefall in crude prices to $8, or even the prolonged enviroment of depressed prices of late; I believe that a member state, or two, may solve the problem with uncooperative member states via a terrorist solution (not a traditional military action). The destruction of tankers, pipelines, or production facilities is not beyond expectation imho. I don't think many people realize how volatile the situation is becoming in the ME.

To: Razorbak who wrote (38479)	2/28/1999 2:49:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Nations that go "poof" in the night. Um. Let's see: Russia - formerly known as the Soviet Union Serbia, Croatia, Macedonia, - Formerly known as Yugoslavia Whatever they call Czechoslovakia now. Shucks just take a look at a world map of 100 or so years ago. Austro-Hungarian Empire - Gone Tsarist Russia - Gone French Kings - Gone The Confederate States of America - Gone with the Wind. In fact history itself is the tale of nations, countries, empires, that go poof! The Saudi's are not so secure that they can do anything they please. The tide of history is flowing long and hard against royalty. People who once had the "full backing or implicit support of US military might" Ngyuen Van Thieu Fulgencio Batista The Shah of Iran Chiang Kai Shek Ferdinand Marcos Former puppets all. A future candidate for going poof! Nigeria - Remember Biafra? hrw.org hrw.org msnbc.com cnn.com cnn.com Why punish Venezuela when they are coming in to compliance? What message would that send? Why punish Mexico when they are eager to join in cuts? Would that not be counter productive at this point? Since many foreign banks and investors hold the debt of oil producing countries, would not $6 a barrel force that debt to be marked to market as near worthless, thus forcing banking regulators to require the banks holding that debt to record that debt as a liability rather than as an asset on their books? Did you consider that in todays real time financial markets that banking regulators may not have your crystal ball and know that $6 oil would only last 2 months?