Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (16957)	3/1/1999 7:00:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

The brokers I speak with are friends and the conversation is more informal than usual. They are cautious, even the ones that last summer were overwhelmingly bullish. By and large, I think brokers have a natural tendency to project an "All is Well" scenario publically to reassure their client base. The higher end ones probably are more conservative with high end clients. I know of a few wealthy people who have asked about the market with some concern; I have a feeling it's because their advisors, whether brokers or bankers or whatever, are cautioning them. My response usually (to close friends) runs along the lines of reminding them that they have been driving their funds up roughly 4, 5 fold in the last 8 or 9 years plus the dividends and if the market were to drop a thousand, fifteen hundred points so what. After all, they aren't traders they are investors. But they are worried. It does seem to be more concentrated in the older group. People who have been through hard markets. So perhaps they have a built in sixth sense that a younger person does not have. Your trader friend sounds married to DELL. Dell's chart over the years is positively parabolic. It's rare that a stock can maintain that. Without looking I suppose that the only one that I can think of would be MSFT. I think US Surgical and possibly AMGEN ran like DELL only to languish for years. But I do think the Tech Sector is far from finished it's cycle. Everything moves so fast these days I cannot even tell where the cycles start and stop anymore though. On the other hand, every trader I read is negative. Williams has a scenario of hitting 1070 SPX, I think it was, by mid-march. McMillan has Sell signals and also has just reco'd a short on INTC. He has a bearish OEX Spread. Hegarty has been bearish, another guy is concerned because he reco'd a naked sale of OEX 520 puts and they were climbing in value; odd when one considers the OEX is almost 100 points higher. I don't read Inger anymore but he was the kind of guy who was bearish most of the time, my guess is that he is still fighting the noble fight. His method was "Sell it, put a X point Trailing Stop on it and if you are taken out then trail a Y point Sell Stop." I think that he is an excellent stock picker but his trading of the S&P was not for me. The guys who don't say much are the day traders, so I get the feeling that they are mostly guessing the markets stays sideways.