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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (21)	3/1/1999 12:54:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 52153

David, I'm assuming a 25% royalty corresponds to a 50:50 split of the product, thus I'm already taking into account SG&A. I agree the $300m for Novaris is conservative. It corresponds to a half-share in a drug worth $1.2 billion with a 50% chance of success. The $1.2b figure is conservative; who knows if the 50% chance of success is realistic. One argument against my methodology here is that Novartis presumably isn't committed to the whole $100m trial up-front; if they don't like what they initially see they could cut-back or abandon the trial. Peter