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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (22)	3/1/1999 1:02:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

<I agree the $300m for Novaris is conservative. It corresponds to a half-share in a drug worth $1.2 billion with a 50% chance of success. The $1.2b figure is conservative; who knows if the 50% chance of success is realistic.> Interesting... I like the methodology and think it's certainly very useful to look projects the way the company probably does... is that where you got the idea to look the value this way? I'll tell you, looking at what MLNM & INCY spend on their projects is eye opening. DAK

To: Biomaven who wrote (22)	3/1/1999 1:08:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 52153

If they don't see toxicity/adverse effects, they won't know what they see...... blinded. I really like what the contributors to this thread are trying to do. I prefer the old fashioned technique.... look at the market size and penetration rates, and calculate returns based on patent life and expected competition. Discount for time and chance of success. Gives nice big numbers that have, traditionally, been worthless. :-) However, it's worked for my targets, more often than not.

To: Biomaven who wrote (22)	3/1/1999 3:49:00 PM
From: Scott H. Davis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

And since Nov. expanded the trial, that risk is perhaps less than avertage. <<<One argument against my methodology here is that Novartis presumably isn't committed to the whole $100m trial up-front; if they don't like what they initially see they could cut-back or abandon the trial.>>>