To: JH who wrote (23299 ) 3/1/1999 2:14:00 PM From: Marc Newman Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213173
John, thanks for your post. We love international reports! It's rough enough being a Mac user in the U.S. sometimes so you have my sympathies with the USB problem et al over there. I do get the feeling that Apple will have a fine quarter this year. Maybe this is just because the domestic market is such the dominant part of Apple's business. I think the point was made that an awful lot of new G3s go to people who don't use modems. Plus, I believe both internal and external USB modems are available here now. So even the earliest adopters only had to wait a month or so. So not only do I think these new machines are moving well (having a video card like that in the $1599 machine seems like a steal), but we have some further positive factors. That is, the G3 line was very ready for an overhaul, plus the channel was dry. So we've got pent-up demand (which Apple appeared to handle very nicely from the first--in the past they'd have run out of 400 mhz machines after 48 hours) and a channel that needs to be filled. I mean, Apple is going to exit the quarter with a few weeks worth of G3s in the channel that count as sales. They didn't have that last quarter. Seems to me that iMac sales continue to be strong. Apple is selling all the non-Tangerine it can make, it appears. Someone on AOL said that one of the big Mac catalogs was out of all the others. At my local stores one is generally able to get Lime, Strawberry, and Tangerine on a walk-in basis. My sources in Michigan say that the local stores are getting shipments of Blueberry and Grape each week, though they sell out quickly. One can imagine the sales when Best Buy and CompUSA get fully stocked. So basically, I'm looking for a fine report and for Apple to be able to partially avoid PC-maker troubles by virtue of its "nicheness." I mean, the Mac doesn't even use the same chips as the PCs, so a PIII transition isn't quite as disruptive. Stock-wise, I was too early to get back in at $37, though I only picked up a 10% position. You might well be right to sell at $39, as the only thing that is getting Apple through $40 is earnings or the announcement of the consumer portable. Needless to say, I don't think the portable or iMac education sales are priced into the stock right now. Marc