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To: RocketMan who wrote (22585)	3/1/1999 8:16:00 PM
From: Brad Bolen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

RE: Or a 50% call rate. A 50% batting avg in this market is not too shabby... I hear the same about coin flips. Random Walk? B.

To: RocketMan who wrote (22585)	3/2/1999 8:24:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

RocketMan, >>>> Or a 50% call rate. A 50% batting avg in this market is not too shabby <<<<<< A 50% rate at calling specificly a crash is very good. It is so hard to call a big move on a technical basis. I realise that you were being conservative, since as you mentioned 2 of them were not really market wide classical crashes, so their success rate could be 75%, which is fabulous. I think most underestimate the difficulty in predicting a crash, not just a correction. Its hard enough to call a 5-10% correction, but to call a 20%+ drop is geometrically harder. Seeya