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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neuroguy who wrote (1862)	3/2/1999 1:14:00 AM
From: Bob Swift	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 10280

Board, Let me be the bad guy for a change. The current valuation of SEPR is based on :" POTENTIAL". Thus, every ICE we have is potentially a winner. However, there has not been any serious examination on the " WHAT IF no one care about a half-way better mouse trap" question. What if the clinical trials showed that Prozac and Clartin are only marginally better ? Will Lilly and SGP continue to push the ICE ? If it is not better, will consumers pay up ? If there is no distinction between the drugs and therefore prices, will a SEPR patent be able to protect the monopoly for the next 20 years ? As such, I think three events are worth watching: (1) The resolution of the ongoing legal tangle on Allegra. (2) How successful will the launch of xopenex be since there seems to be more opinion on the effectiveness and consumer acceptance than I thought the clinincal data would have us believed.IF the acceptance is poor, we can blame it on the small sale force available in 1999 but then sometime in 2000 we will have to face the earning number. A poor acceptance of just this showcase ICE may cast doubt on all the other ICEs that do not have a black and white profile.In which case, we will have to fall back on those ICE that definitely show improved efficacy and reduced or eliminated side effect and Propulsid comes to mind. (3) The clinical trial of Propulsid which offer the possibility of removing the side effect of the drug and that the FDA has put its foot down. I am in over my head on SEPR and would appreciate it if anyone care to improve on this worst case senario.