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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 777 Captain who wrote (19175)	3/2/1999 2:01:00 PM
From: Andreas Samson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

From Cruttenden Roth 9/1/98: '...The confounding issues that cause us to believe the company will have more difficulty partnering are: - As time elapses, we believe MUSE, currently without a distribution arm in the US, will lose more value as prescriptions decline and the proposition of regaining market share by an acquiring company becomes more difficult. -More costly to a big pharmaceutical company to re-launch the product rather than assume reigns of the company. -The uncertainty of the potential impact of Viagra's launch in Europe makes projecting sales very difficult at best and compromises the company's negotiating position. -as the company prepares to sell itself, we believe the value diminishes over the next 3-6 months...' Then, on 10/18: 'We believe the company's long-term viability is at risk unless the company secures a marketing partner for MUSE in the near future. Without a marketing presence, the value of MUSE decreases daily as it becomes more difficult to re-launch the product.'

To: 777 Captain who wrote (19175)	3/2/1999 3:34:00 PM
From: Andreas Samson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

Prediction, Captain: if there isn't a domestic partner by May 1, there is not going to be a partner. Should it occur, it would be a trade-off for Vivus. They'll get higher unit sales, but lower revenue per unit sold. The higher the volume, the greater the opportunity for profit. If sales are expected to increase to only, say, 1997 levels, it may be that VVUS and the Partner cannot reach an equitable division of the pie. In light of Viagra, it would not be unreasonable for the Partner to conclude that Q397 is the high-water for MUSE domestically. Neither company may feel it can make a decent profit with that level of volume. Negotiations, if they exist, may likely turn on differing perceptions of the size of the PROBABLE, rather than potential, MUSE market. The obvious choice here is Janssen or Astra. Each is familiar with MUSE and already have a working relationship with Vivus. For whatever reason, perhaps Vivus wanted too favorable terms for itself, neither signed with Vivus last July. If the press release announcing a 'search', was a way of forcing their respective hands, it was a tactic which didn't work. The fact that a partnership wasn't reached then casts significant doubt on an agreement ever being reached. Janssen, with an English-speaking presence in Canada, would seem to be the logical choice of the two. Janssen hasn't signed. The purported explanation for Astra and Vivus not signing an agreement as yet, has been the merger. Now that it's coming to completion, I see no impediment here. May 1st or it aint going to happen. FWIW.