To: Dorine Essey who wrote (106080 ) 3/2/1999 8:55:00 AM From: Calvin Respond to of 176387
Tuesday, March 02, 1999 THE DAY AHEAD: Micron's woes don't mean sky is falling on PC stocks By Larry Dignan TDAIN March 2, 1999 7:28am ZDII Micron Electronics Inc. (Nasdaq: MUEI) confirmed what many investors have feared -- PC sales are soft. But the PC sector may not be as bad as it appears and may provide investors with a buying opportunity as Wall Street overreacts. After the bell Monday, Micron Electronics warned that sales for its fiscal second quarter ending March 4 would be six to nine percent first quarter sales of $403.5 million. The company's earnings will also fall short of Wall Street estimates. Plenty of investors will hit the panic button on PC stocks after the relatively soft quarter from Dell Computer Corp. (Nasdaq: DELL) and leaks of soft sales from Compaq Computer Corp. (NYSE: CPQ). Compaq (chart) is down about 16 percent in two trading sessions. If you play connect the dots with Dell, Compaq and Micron, the PC sector isn't looking so great. But use a little context. Sales in January and February are typically soft and Intel Corp.'s (Nasdaq: INTC) Pentium III launch prompted users to hold out for the new chip. Take those conditions and add it to the usual price cutting and there's a recipe for disaster. So what's the good news? Many of Micron's sales problems are specific to the company and don't necessarily reflect on other PC players. Here's why Micron's woes don't reflect on PC vendors taken as a whole. Item 1 -- Intel's advance marketing hurt Micron's sales. The Pentium III push probably hurt other PC vendors too, but Micron is especially vulnerable since it caters to the "power user," also known as geeks. Micron officials said they have a higher percentage of geeks, which are more likely to hold out for a Pentium III. Compaq wouldn't take as many lumps over the Pentium III because buyers of its sub-$1,000 PCs could care less about the Pentium III. In the week prior to the Pentium III rollout, Micron's daily sales were down 35 percent from January levels, he said. "We've seen time and again that these power users will wait for the introduction of new technology," said Micron CEO Joel Kocher. Item 2 -- Micron has a wacky fiscal year. The second quarter ends March 4, meaning Micron took its seasonal lumps in January and got whacked by the Pentium III in February. Compaq, however, had slow sales in February, but the company has time to make up ground with a big March sales, which should rebound because of the Pentium III. Item 3 -- Micron isn't the leader. Whatever price cutting Compaq does, Dell tries to do better. Micron has to do better than Dell because it doesn't have the brand name so margins get squeezed. Kocher noted that Gateway Inc. (NYSE: GTW) hasn't entered the price war. There are plenty of things to worry about, but the recent sales slowdown may be just a matter of perception -- Wall Street's expectations outpaced reality. The pricing pressures are a problem for the PC industry, but the fierce competition is nothing new. Micron took its lumps because of a combination of its user base, a bad quarterly break and its lack of leadership position. Micron's woes don't mean the sky is falling on PC stocks. TDAIN