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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SteveG who wrote (10475)3/2/1999 3:06:00 PM
From: MangoBoy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12468
 
[Advanced Radio Telecom Reports Fourth Quarter, Year End Results]

(loss was (0.57) vs. consensus of (0.74) -- mark)

ART Successfully Redirects Business Strategy and Achieves Key Milestones

Bellevue, Wash. (March 2, 1999) -- Advanced Radio Telecom Corp. today announced its fourth quarter and 1998 year end results, and summarized an eventful year highlighted by the successful implementation of a new business strategy providing integrated, Internet business communications services to small and mid-sized businesses that do not have fiber connectivity.

1998 fourth quarter and year end financial results Total revenues for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 1998, were $211,700 compared with $230,400 for the same period last year. Total revenues for the twelve months ended December 31, 1998, were $840,800, compared to $1.1 million last year.

Operating costs and expenses for the fourth quarter of 1998 were $10,091,800, compared with $19,672,500 for the same period last year. Operating costs and expenses for 1998 were $35,212,300, down from $47,372,800 in 1997.

Operating loss for the fourth quarter of 1998 was $9,880,100 compared to $19,442,100 for the same period last year. Operating losses for 1998 were $34,371,500 down from $46,267,000 last year. The net loss for the fourth quarter of 1998 was $15,270,100 or $0.57 loss per share, compared to $23,574,900 or $1.12 loss per share for the fourth quarter of 1997. Net loss for 1998 was $51,243,300 or $2.06 loss per share, compared to $61,728,900 or $3.23 loss per share last year.

"I am very pleased with the progress this company has made since we redirected its strategy in the spring of 1998," said Henry "Harry" C. Hirsch. "Although we were capital constrained throughout the year, we were able to significantly reduce our spending, especially on SG&A, while improving the skill set of our people necessary to effectively implement our new data services strategy."

Summary of 1998 accomplishments:

In March 1998, ART announced its new business strategy to become the leading provider of broadband data services to the vast number of businesses that are without fiber connectivity. Within a week, ART and Lucent Technologies announced a letter of intent naming Lucent as the supplier and integrator of ART's planned wireless broadband data network. That agreement was completed in July 1998.

"In our view, Lucent is simply the best in the business," said Hirsch. "We were aware early on that Lucent had identified this sector as one of tremendous growth potential and, knowing how they operate, we were sure that they would make some very meaningful commitments to broadband fixed wireless technology."

In May, ART and Lucent began building a pilot network in Bellevue intended to test data services using ART's existing point-to-point wireless assets combined with a fiber optic and IP/ATM backbone. More than 20 businesses participated in the eight-week pilot providing feedback critical to building a solid network configuration that allowed for rapid deployment of services in other markets. During this period, ART also forged a number of alliances that resulted in a comprehensive suite of Internet-based services. The companies include .comfax, InterNAP Network Services, Microsoft Explorer 4.01 and Web 3000 NetSonic Internet Accelerator.

In July, Lucent agreed to provide ART with $25 million of operating capital allowing ART to conduct a pilot program in Bellevue. In September, Lucent agreed to provide $200 million in purchase money financing subject to certain financial and operating performance requirements. This financing will allow ART to further its data network development. ART successfully launched commercial services in the Seattle metropolitan area, converting 85 percent of the pilot businesses to commercial service.

By year end ART had:

· Introduced commercial service in the Portland, Phoenix and Seattle metropolitan areas;
· Acquired access to 155 buildings in its initial three markets.
· Provisioned 85 buildings with full connectivity to its regional network including network management capability; and
· Received 142 customer service orders.

"It has been an exciting year for ART. Utilizing our nationwide 38GHz spectrum and our broadband wireless technology to deliver services directly to our customer, we entered the market as a facilities-based Internet Service Provider offering a complete suite of world-class Internet services," said Hirsch. "This year is shaping up to be just as exciting as we grow our customer base in existing markets, expand into more markets on the West coast, and finalize raising the capital required to fund the growth of our business."

The coming year will capitalize on ART's deployment of a point-to-multipoint solution from its supplier and systems integrator, Lucent Technologies. The companies currently are conducting a technical evaluation of the ATM-based radio system in Milpitas, Calif., and plan to begin installing the solution in ART's network in the third quarter of 1999. At the same time, ART will continue development of its operations support systems architecture to provide a complete electronic platform for interfacing with its customers including electronic billing, ordering, provisioning, and trouble ticket tracking.

                      Advanced Radio Telecom Corp.
Consolidated Statement of Operations
For the Three Months Ended December 31, 1998 and 1997
1998 1997
REVENUES:
Service revenue $211,739 $190,360
Equipment sales and construction revenue -- 40,000
Total revenue 211,739 230,360
COSTS and EXPENSES:
Technical and network operations 3,976,455 3,495,266
Cost of equipment sales and construction -- 40,045
Sales and marketing 1,194,970 3,136,152
General and administrative 2,201,105 4,009,403
Research and development 184,124 207,959
Equipment Impairment 70,302 7,166,720
Depreciation and amortization 2,464,851 1,616,938
Total operating costs and expenses
10,091,807 19,672,483
Operating loss (9,880,068) (19,442,123)
Interest expense 5,745,649 4,995,800
Financing commitment expense 593,353 --
Other 75,406 --
Interest income (519,427) (967,822)
Loss before income taxes (15,775,049) (23,470,101)
Deferred income tax benefit (expense) 504,968 (104,774)
Net loss (15,270,081) (23,574,875)
Net loss per common share ( 0.57) ( 1.12)
Weighted average common shares 26,707,036 20,998,484
Advanced Radio Telecom Corp.
Consolidated Statement of Operations
For the Years Ended December 31, 1998 and 1997
1998 1997
(unaudited)
REVENUES:
Service revenue $840,822 $708,883
Equipment sales and construction revenue -- 396,970
Total revenue 840,822 1,105,853
COSTS and EXPENSES:
Technical and network operations 8,603,576 7,252,512
Cost of equipment sales and construction -- 254,444
Sales and marketing 5,679,222 13,469,898
General and administrative 10,228,401 12,789,866
Research and development 593,595 421,236
Equipment impairment 2,753,105 7,166,720
Depreciation and amortization 7,354,378 6,018,172
Total operating costs and expenses
35,212,277 47,372,848
Operating loss (34,371,455) (46,266,995)
Interest expense 21,173,374 18,931,303
Financing commitment expense 1,004,393 2,699,881
Other 494,484 --
Interest income (2,693,257) (4,814,004)
Loss before income taxes (54,350,449) (63,084,175)
Deferred income tax benefit 3,107,165 1,355,249
Net loss (51,243,284) (61,728,926)
Net loss per common share ( 2.06) ( 3.23)
Weighted average common shares 24,890,177 19,083,304



To: SteveG who wrote (10475)3/3/1999 12:40:00 AM
From: SteveG  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12468
 
BTAB on TGNT:

HIGHLIGHTS:
-- Teligent reported 4Q 1998 results after the market's close
yesterday (1-Mar). While it is still too soon to place much
emphasis on the financial results, TGNT reported in-line with our
expectations. We continue to believe that strategic events are a
more likely driver of the stock in the short term.

-- POSITIVE NEW NEWS: Teligent reported revenue of $0.5M and EBITDA of
- $78M, in line with our expectations. Management also released its
internal expectations for 1999 performance, which are largely more
bullish that our previous expectations, and reflect a less expensive
rollout of domestic markets:

TGNT-goal BTAB-prior BTAB-new BTAB
Metric 1999 1999 1999 2000
Revenue $35M $30M $33.6M $164M
EBITDA* -$350M -$380M -$356M -$300M
Subscribers 10,000 4,000 10,000 29,000
Access Lines 75,000 80,000 80,000 290,000
Capex $300M $287M $306M $279M

* Excludes non-cash compensation expenses.

-- NEGATIVE NEW NEWS: While Teligent announced 10,000 lines at YE
1998, we believe less than 40% of these are local voice access lines
(our estimate was 4,600). We believe Teligent is experiencing a delay
in adding local service to customers who have switched LD services
already as a result of inexperience in the installation process--an
issue Teligent is addressing with a larger install team and increased
training.

-- NET-NET: We believe Teligent, with over $1.2B in available funding,
is funded through the initial 40-market rollout and well into (if not
through) 2000, with 1999 now forecasted to be the peak EBITDA loss
year. We expect to see a significant ramp in access line growth in 2H
1999 as multipoint technology matures and the company optimizes its
deployment capabilities.

--VALUATION: Based on the lower operating losses forecasted for 1999
and 2000, we have raised our 12-month DCF-derived price objective to
$49/share. Maintain our "strong buy" investment rating on the shares.

DETAILS:
Teligent reported 4Q 1998 results after the market's close yesterday
(1-Mar). While it is still too soon to place much emphasis on the
financial results, TGNT reported in-line with our expectations. We
continue to believe that strategic events are a more likely driver of
the stock in the short term.

Management released internal projections for 1999 financial and
operating performance. In general, the company's expectations are
slightly more bullish than our previous estimates, and reflect a less
expensive rollout of domestic market builds. We have made the
following changes to our model:

TGNT-goal BTAB-prior BTAB-new BTAB
Metric 1999 1999 1999 2000
Revenue $35M $30M $33.6M $164M
EBITDA* -$350M -$380M -$356M -$300M
Subscribers 10,000 4,000 10,000 29,000
Access Lines 75,000 80,000 80,000 290,000
Capex $300M $287M $306M $279M
* Excludes non-cash compensation expenses.
Source: Company documents, BT Alex. Brown Incorporated.

We now believe 1999 will represent the high water mark for EBITDA
losses, and are forecasting EBITDA-breakeven in late 2001. We also
expect 1999 to be back-end loaded in terms of revenue, subscribers,
and access line growth. It generally takes at least a quarter for
salesperson to become fully productive, and most of Teligent's
salespeople either recently came on-line, or will be coming on-line in
the later in 1999.

OPERATING METRICS HOLD LITTLE MEANING, BUT PROVISIONING SOMEWHAT BEHIND

While Teligent announced 10,000 lines at YE 1998, we believe less than
40% of these are local voice access lines (our estimate was 4,600).
We believe Teligent is experiencing a delay in adding local service to
customers who have switched LD services already as a result of two
factors: longer lead times on obtaining leases for roof rights, and
inexperience in the installation force--something Teligent is
addressing with a larger installation team and increased training.

We believe Teligent has simply pushed forward its site acquisition
program by 1-2 months in advance of marketing services in new markets
to address the longer roof right lead time.

Provisioning is a more difficult challenge. Once Teligent makes a
sale, LD service can be provisioned same-day remotely, while
provisioning facilities-based local services requires access to the
subscriber's roof, a truck roll, antenna mounting, and system
optimization. We further believe that installing multipoint radios is
a more difficult process, and Teligent is currently spending a great
deal of time on each individual link with its equipment manufacturer,
Nortel.

We would expect Teligent to outgrow its inexperience rather quickly as
the installation process progresses, and as the installation workforce
moves up the learning curve. Management has targeted a 3-5 day
installation period for subscribers in buildings with a roof right
under contract by the end of the year for multipoint subscribers.

With all that said, Teligent has added about 200 buildings to its
wireless network, implying 5 customers per building on average. We
believe this is a very good number from which to begin operations, and
is likely to move higher over time. Approximately half of those
buildings are connected via multipoint radios. Management does not
expect that ratio to climb significantly until 2H 1999, which is
consistent with our view that multipoint technology will not be ready
for "prime time" until the second half of 1999.

FUNDING IN PLACE WELL INTO 2000

At YE 1998, Teligent had almost $1.3B in available funding, which we
believe is sufficient to fund the 40-market domestic buildout and will
get the company well into, if not through, 2000.

Sources of funds 1999-2000
Total Cash $481M
Unused Bank Facility $800M
Total Sources $1,281M

Uses of funds 1999-2000
EBITDA Losses $656M
Capex $584M
Cash Interest $137M
Total Uses $1,377M
Funding Deficit $159M
Source: BT Alex. Brown Incorporated.

We note that Teligent's agreement with Nortel allows the company to
pay for equipment only after successful deployment, and as such cash
capital expenditures could come in below our estimates, pushing
Teligent's funding requirements into 2000.

STRATEGIC UPDATE

We continue to believe that wireless CLECs are attractive
consolidation candidates for the following groups of telecom
companies:

Group Interest
IXCs Bypass local access fees, bottleneck
Foreign telcos Foothold in U.S. marketplace with sizeable footprint
ISPs Bypass last-mile bottleneck to deliver enhanced
content
Fiber CLECs Economically broaden scope of existing footprint

We believe that wireless CLECs we would likely to look for:
-- Intercity fiber--to form a broadband end-to-end network
-- Intracity fiber--backhaul to push hubs further out from city
centers
-- International fiber--to extend the broadband network on a global
scale
-- ISPs--to leverage their existing marketing/distribution
capabilities.
-- More Spectrum--we'd always be on the lookout for cheap spectrum,
both domestically and globally.

Our private market valuation for Teligent, based no our 10-year DCF
using a 10%-15% discount rate, is $68-$95/share, which we believe
adequately reflects the strategic position of wireless carriers and
the scarcity of that spectrum.

VALUATION

Based on the lower operating losses forecasted for 1999 and 2000, we
have raised our DCF-derived price objective to $49/share, using a 20%
equity discount rate and a 10x terminating multiple. Maintain our
"strong buy" investment rating on the shares.



To: SteveG who wrote (10475)3/3/1999 12:58:00 AM
From: SteveG  Respond to of 12468
 
BTAB on WCII ahead of CC:

HIGHLIGHTS:
-- WinStar is expected to report 4Q 1998 results after the close on
Thursday (4-Mar). While WinStar is at a more advanced stage than other
wireless access companies, the company is still relatively young in
terms of wireless deployment and certainly at pre-multipoint state.
Therefore, we continue to believe that financial results are likely to
show significant volatility and possible deviation from expectations,
and that strategic events are more likely drivers of the stock.

-- CONFERENCE CALL INFORMATION:
WinStar Thur (4-Mar) 4:45pm EST 212-896-6107 800-633-8625

-- HEADLINE ESTIMATES:
WINSTAR 4Q98E 4Q97A 1998E 1997A
Revenue $78.0M $30.0M $243.8M $80.3M
EBITDA -$80.4M -$49.5M -$226.3M -$157.6M
Net Access
Line Add's 60,000 25,000 215,000 100,000
Roof Rights 4,200 2,000 4,200 2,000
Gross Margin 17% Neg. 19% Neg.
% On-Net Lines 20% NA 20% NA
Source: Company Documents, BT Alex. Brown Incorporated.

-- STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE: YTD, WCII is down 20% versus a 18% gain in
our CLEC Index and a 1% gain in the S&P 500.

-- NET-NET: We believe 4Q 1998 will be more memorable for its
strategic importance than its financial performance. WinStar signed
strategic agreements with Lucent (financing) and Williams (long-haul
fiber), and made several important changes with respect to its
internal focus (international, expanded domestic roll outs). With a
2H 1999 introduction of point-to-multipoint technology still on track,
we expect the "hockey stick" ramp to kick in later this year.



To: SteveG who wrote (10475)3/3/1999 3:30:00 AM
From: DavesM  Respond to of 12468
 
SteveG/B, yes love the ALPS-for the price, nothing better, or slower.eom

davesm



To: SteveG who wrote (10475)3/3/1999 8:05:00 AM
From: limtex  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 12468
 
SG -

Surely there must be good/v.good results on with the progress of the carrying out the business plan in the domestic market.

What I'm getting at is that a serious team like BR leads would get into announcing the opening 50 overseas markets while at the same time as falling down on their domestic progress. If there weren't v.good progress as I say then they would be very stronggly criticized for trying to bite off more than they could chew and while that wouldn't be the first time a management did that I get the feeling that there is indeed v.good progress being made in domestic roll out.

And there is plenty of room for more competitors so TGNT doign well isn't aproblem either in fact so far as the WCII share price is concerend just the opposite and for the proof just take a look at what has happened to G* in the wake of bad news from IRIDF!!

Just some rationalization and thoughts?

REgards,

L