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To: IceShark who wrote (22812)	3/2/1999 5:09:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86076

Ice, I know I don't like entrail as much, I mean the usual stuff. However, we can gauge where we are headed by looking back at how we got there. Some times. I looked at POS trading. We know this thing did not trade on funnymetals. It was traded on entrails, good-hands weak hands crapola. Basically there were two balsts up: 1) OCt 7 to Dec 21: from ~25 to ~55 on total volume of 250.8 mil 2) Jan 4 to Feb 4: from ~50 to ~80. on total vol of 124.6 mil 3) Feb 5 to no: from ~80 to ~54. Total vol. 101.2 mil shares In step 1, the strong-hands got in when chicken-littles bailed out. I would think that short-interest was down significantly during this time (I don't have actual numbers). The volume indicates that at least about 70% of the float was accumulated in this phase (~160 mil). In step 2, momentum traders jumped in and short interest went down from 11 mil to 5 mil. Puny. The volume (124.6) indicates that a few day-traders, shorts who were shot and some gullible fundmanagers got in. Distribution. Let us assume about 1/3 of the 160 mil sold in to this blow-off top. Another 1/3rd from Feb 4th top. That would leave about 50 mil shares accumulated during the first phase still to be sold. Factor that by 2/3 - which will give you 33, say 30 million shares. So, about 30 mil shares are still sitting on a lot of profit (at 54.) Assume POS sells of a minimum of $3 in each sell-off day and it recovers about as much in a recovery day. At this stage the dynamic is such that we have 2 sell-off days for each up day. So, per day it goes down by an average of $1. That is if the stock trades normally! With 30 mil shares trying to lock-gains, it will start an avalanche. Remember, they don't have as much short position in the stock. That 30 mil does not include the stop-loss sellers, new shorters and short-coverer. The buyers at this time are TA types and short-coverers and very few lemmings. IMO. (the wolf has shed the sheep skin.) Given this demand and supply analysis, I would say, POS is a safer short than tech crap. PS. After doing this rigorous thinking, and analysis, is contrarian in me beginning to think that POS may be a safe LONG! -g-