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Technology Stocks : XYBR - Xybernaut -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Scott who wrote (2107)	3/3/1999 2:37:00 AM
From: Dave Shoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6847

I don't think you'll catch IBM or Sony doing any of Xybernaut's R&D. While IBM may be perfectly happy making $85 (my irrelevant guess) in software revenue per MA-IV, and Sony is content making considerably more per unit for their tooling expertise and investment, I wouldn't expect they are supplying many free engineers to Xybernaut. As far as cheap wearables go, I do see a scaled down wearable PC in Xybernaut's distant future, but "scaling down" right now would tend to cause reduction of differentiation of it's product from the other limited-capability "pocket computers" coming into the marketplace. The Xybernaut is not equivalent to today's definition of a pocket computer (which are inevitably stripped of some important facets of a PC). The MA-IV is a full function personal computer designed to be integrated into a mobile workday. The fact is, I'm not the least bit interested in walking around on my social time with a geek machine strapped to my torso. It's not necessary and just not good carma. The internet must mature, as does it's interface. Cell phone economics and connectivity must also change. Energy-conserving microprocessor technologies must continue to clock faster (there is a LOT of technology in those specially developed, energy sipping 233/266 MHz microprocessors). Low-energy memory must continue to grow in capacity. Also, society must change before a human can walk down the street sporting a PC (and not get beat up). Frankly, if any company came out with the 'perfectly cheap' wearable right now, they would go bankrupt due to lack of market. While everyone would want to have a look, only a tiny fraction of the population would not mock it (O.K., if you're reading this, you're probably one of the few who it would appeal to:^). Xybernaut's association with Samsung may breed a more powerful version of a wearable, built around the new low-energy Alpha chipset and the Microsoft platform. We'll see when the time comes. Until then (and after then), Xybernaut is the only company which offers a full-function PC in intrinsically toteable form. This has value in many business environments. Xybernaut's emphasis on the industrial market is not an accident. It's the reason they have not gone out of business. The MA-IV can be profitable in many work arenas and businesses are just beginning to learn this. My main question is: Is this iteration of the product being recognized and purchased by industry in any significant volume? I believe it is, but Xybernaut is not saying, and Xybernaut-supplied indicators point both ways. This is worrysome, but mainly to the warrant holders, because imminent growth is more a matter of time, and less a matter of luck. The bottom line is: There is no money to be made from an economical wearable PC until a mass market evolves. This won't happen in a year or two. Right now the interest is in industrial applications. And cutting cost corners is not as important to industry as providing a rugged, reliable product. This is good. This allows a healthy profit margin to make up for volume limitations. Give me real news, or give me a stable stock price. This rumor crap is for the birds. Shoe.

To: Jon Scott who wrote (2107)	3/3/1999 7:57:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6847

So Xybernaut is "working on" a 500 dollar wearable internet with computing power. . .when Xybernaut met with SONY in discussions over "Netman" or whatever. . .did anyone here think that Sony would even consider putting out a Netman at 5,000.00? No, of course not. They would be stupid to do that. The only interest Sony has in wearable computer technology is so that they can market it to the average consumer, beginning at 500.00 and eventually, get it down to the 300.00 range. THAT is where the money is. And Xybernaut stands to make FAR more revs by accepting say 25 bucks in royalties on 5 million units marketed by Sony, than they could conceivably make off say 1000.00 per unit from last year's model, where they sold what? 1000 units? [125 million vs. 1 million bucks revs] I paid 350.00 for the first Sony Discman. . .now they are 39.00 at Circuit City. Sony wants the netman bad. . .why? Because last month at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, the talk of the show was the many cell phones that offered internet capabilities. Get your email from your cell phone. . .read SI from your cell phone. . .buy stock from your cell phone. . .connect to your own website or business from your cell phone. . . this is NOW . . not 3 years from now. . . and this is CHEAP . . not 5,000.00 each. . .my guess is they cost closer to 300.00 each. . look them up. I have the latest digital Qualcomm cell phone that I paid 49.00 for at Office Max. . .it has all the features of the Nokia or Ericsson, yet it was dirt cheap. For that matter, I bought the IBM APTIVA with an 8 gig drive, K6 300 MHz, 48Meg RAM, 56k Modem, USB bus, 4 meg video card, 3D sound card, keyboard, mouse, speakers, loaded with Windows 98, Lotus Suite, Norton Utilities and every internet service for a grand total of . . . 499.99. [no "typo" . . . 500 bucks] And you can't build it yourself for that little. So the idea of a bare bones PC [mostly ram and a chip with one of those new IBM mini drives?] that can connect to the internet [cellular tech] with voice recognition [39.00 software and a 2 dollar microphone] one eyepeice viewer [my 3D virtual reality headset was only 79.00] and that sells for 500.00 is not only totally conceivable and is EXPECTED. There is no keyboard. . .there is no video monitor. . .there is no printer. . . .you want these. . .they would be extra, of course. Whether Xybernaut or Irvine Sensors or Samsung or Sony or Panasonic comes out with it first, I don't know. But the idea that Xybernaut is "working on" one is plenty to cause excitement. . . and plenty to attract other investors to this fine company. . . Rande Is