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Biotech / Medical : Monsanto Co. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dan Spillane who wrote (1459)3/3/1999 4:06:00 PM
From: Anthony Wong  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2539
 
Push grows for drug coverage, Many back Medicare change

By Alex Pham, Globe Staff, 03/03/99

iriam Laserson has a costly drug problem. Her pharmacy bill adds up
to $646.78 a month. There are the brown pills for high blood
pressure, the diamond-shaped pills for her heart, the oval tablets for
cholesterol, and the pink capsules for allergies.

Although the 72-year-old grandmother is covered by Medicare, the
program has never paid a dime for her drugs, or anyone else's, since
Medicare began in 1965.

Six months ago, the prospect of Medicare covering prescription drugs
would have drawn guffaws in budget-minded Washington. But today,
Democrats and Republicans of all stripes are declaring allegiance to better
drug coverage for the nation's 39 million elderly and disabled. While the
discussion may amount to nothing more than Washington bluster, observers
of health care policy are noting a significant shift in the political winds.

''It's no longer as far-fetched as it was last year,'' said Gail Wilensky, who
ran Medicare in the early 1990s and is now chairwoman of the Medicare
Payment Advisory Commission, which advises Congress about Medicare.
''The pie has come down from the sky.''

What's changed? Federal coffers are now flush with surplus, an avalanche
of costly blockbuster drugs has triggered fierce public debate about how to
pay for medication, and a generation of baby boomers is heading toward
Medicare eligibility. Add a blue-ribbon panel charged with reforming
Medicare, and prescription drugs becomes an irresistible subject.

When Medicare was created, people suffering from arthritis had two
places to turn for relief: aspirin and Tylenol. Today, the arsenal is
considerably more extensive, but also more costly.

The most recent addition is Pfizer Inc.'s Celebrex. The drug has few side
effects compared with other anti-inflammatories, including aspirin and
ibuprofen, both of which can cause stomach bleeding. But the price is high.
A month's supply of Celebrex can cost more than $100, whereas a bottle
of 100 aspirin tablets is only $1.59 at CVS Pharmacy.


Celebrex is just one example of the dilemma. Drugs today advance quality
of life as never before, vanquishing everything from depression and
migraine headaches to impotence and ulcers. Heart medications allow
people to live longer, but like many drugs today, they must be taken every
day, helping to drive up the nation's drug bill.

US spending on drugs nearly doubled between 1993 and 1998, to $104.8
billion from $54.3 billion, according to IMS Health Inc., an industry
research firm. That spending is expected to surge further as baby boomers
hit old age and the biotechnology revolution spawns blockbuster therapies.

Policymakers and demographers have long predicted the crisis and urged
lawmakers to add drugs to Medicare's core package of benefits, to no
avail. At least until now.

''It's become very politically profitable,'' to advocate drug coverage, said
Uwe Reinhardt, a professor of health economics at Princeton University's
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.

In Massachusetts, the issue exploded last year when health maintenance
organizations announced they would no longer offer unlimited prescription
coverage for seniors, despite a state law mandating such benefits for the
elderly. HMOs challenged the law in federal court and won, leaving
thousands of seniors vulnerable to large expenses.

The furor caught the attention of many politicians, including Senator
Edward M. Kennedy and Representatives James McGovern and Barney
Frank. Kennedy is set to introduce a bill this month that will propose a
$1,500 annual drug benefit for every senior and disabled person on
Medicare with a 20 percent copayment and a $100 annual deductible.
McGovern, a Worcester Democrat, and Frank, Democrat of Newton, this
week introduced similar legislation.

Kennedy, who has tried to obtain drug coverage for seniors since 1970,
said the current mood in Washington represents one of the best
opportunities ever to gain the coverage. ''Now is really the time to address
this issue,'' said the Massachusetts Democrat.

The federal budget surplus has opened the door for additional spending in
the $210-billion-a-year Medicare program. The addition of drug coverage,
which could exceed $20 billion a year according to some estimates, would
have been unthinkable prior to the surplus. Indeed, President Clinton
advocated Medicare coverage of prescription drugs - funded by the
budget surplus - in his State of the Union address in January.

The catalyst for much of the discussion in Washington has been a
blue-ribbon commission charged with recommending to Congress
sweeping reforms of Medicare.

''Prescription drugs are one of the most, if not the most, important
component of quality care in our senior population,'' said Senator Bill Frist,
a Republican from Tennessee and a commission member. ''The
armamentarium of health care for seniors must include drugs. That's just so
fundamental.''

The argument on the panel isn't over whether Medicare should include drug
coverage, but how. Democrats on the commission say drugs should be
added to Medicare's core benefits so that every senior would have access
to drug coverage. Republicans say that would be too expensive for a
program already in deep financial trouble.

They also point out that 65 percent of Medicare beneficiaries already have
some sort of drug coverage, from former employers, HMOs, so-called
''medigap'' supplemental insurance policies purchased by seniors, or
Medicaid, the government health care program for the poor.

''Since we can't afford to take care of everybody, I want to make sure that
we take care of the 35 percent of the population that don't already have
coverage,'' Frist said.

Conservatives on the commission, including the co-chairmen, Senator John
Breaux, Democrat of Louisiana, and Representative Bill Thomas,
Republican of California, are backing a plan to force all medigap plans to
cover drugs and to increase eligibility for Medicaid, which does pay for
drugs, from 100 percent of the federal poverty guideline to 135 percent.

But the proposal has been rejected by two commission members who
represent swing votes in the panel's efforts to issue a consensus report.

''I have said from day one what an adequate drug plan looks like, and this
is not it,'' said Stuart Altman, one of the swing voters and a professor of
health policy at Brandeis University. ''Drugs have to be available to
everyone.''

Altman and others argue that many employers are scaling back health
benefits to retired workers. In addition, much of the coverage seniors
currently receive is expensive and inadequate. Even Medicaid, considered
generous, has gaps.

Myrtle Jackson, a 76-year-old great-grandmother in Lynn, gets Medicaid,
which helps pay for part of her $4,200 annual pharmacy bill. In 1997,
Jackson paid $1,800 of the bill herself because she earned slightly more
than the income ceiling for Medicaid. Last year, she paid $1,000 toward
her drug bill before Medicaid began picking up the tab.

Meanwhile, the topic has become so hot in Washington that even the drug
industry has ceded ground. In a major policy shift, the Pharmaceutical
Research and Manufacturers of America in Washington last month said it
supports prescription drug coverage under Medicare but only for seniors
enrolled in private health plans, such as Medicare HMOs. The industry
continues to fiercely oppose coverage under the government-controlled
portion of Medicare because it fears federal price controls.

To be sure, Washington may take no action this year, or even next year.
But some Washington skeptics are beginning to say drug coverage under
Medicare is inevitable.

''There's a large gap between talk and action in Washington,'' said
Wilensky. ''I don't think anything is going to happen in the short run. Not
now. But sometime.''

This story ran on page A01 of the Boston Globe on 03/03/99.
© Copyright 1999 Globe Newspaper Company.

boston.com



To: Dan Spillane who wrote (1459)3/3/1999 4:40:00 PM
From: Anthony Wong  Respond to of 2539
 
The deal doesn't need to be that dilutive to DD, if DD spins off the rest of Conoco (70%), sells its 20% stake in Pioneer Hi-Bred, perhaps even sells or spins off its chemical business, uses the cash to retire some of MTC's debt or do some refinancing of the debt. Analysts' mean estimates are for MTC to earn 80 cents in 99; that's probably a bit low since it has taken a conservative estimate of Celebrex's sales. MTC may be able to earn another 10 - 20 cents more this year, notwithstanding the high marketing costs.



To: Dan Spillane who wrote (1459)3/3/1999 4:59:00 PM
From: Anthony Wong  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2539
 
[Great article!] 03/03 DuPont/Monsanto could dominate farming for decades

By Jonathan Birt

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - A merger between Du Pont Co
<DD.N> and Monsanto Co <MTC.N> could create a company
capable of dominating the world's fast-changing farming industry for
decades to come.

Combining the two businesses -- a project still firmly on the drawing
board according to reports in the New York Times -- would
immediately create the biggest seller of products for agriculture, with
annual sales of more than $6 billion.

It would surge past Europe's Aventis, currently being formed from the
merger of Germany's Hoechst AG <HOEG.F> with France's
Rhone-Poulenc SA <RHON.PA>, on $4.5 billion, and leave
Switzerland's Novartis AG <NOVZn.S> and Britain's Zeneca Group
Plc <ZEN.L> trailing. Despite its scale, analysts beleive a merger
would probably slide past antitrust authorities based on the group's
existing portfolios, which are largely complementary. But they argue
the real significance of the deal could lay a decade or more away,
when the anticipated biotechnology revolution in world farming takes
off.

At stake is the creation of an industry that could dwarf the current
agrochemicals business, which has grown up since 1945 around
chemical treatment of insects and diseases through pesticides and
herbicides, plus provision of fertilizers and nutrients to encourage
growth.

But the unravelling of the genetic make up of plants, in tandem with
that of humans, promises to revolutionise the way crops are raised,
creating superbreeds of plants capable of fighting off diseases and
insects.

On Tuesday, Britain' biggest player in the field, Zeneca, estimated the
global industry could be worth around $700 billion by 2020 compared
with just $33 billion today.

While Zeneca posits a relatively modest share of $75 billion for itself,
the company's own figures estimate the agricultural biotech market
will be dominated by Du Pont with sales of $500 billion a year by
2020, followed by Monsanto on $100 billion. The prize for the two
U.S. groups and their main European rivals, which also include the
Germans BASF AG <BASF.F> and Bayer AG <BAYG.F>, is using
genetic understanding of plants to create in-built resistance to
disease, insects and chemicals used to destroy unwanted vegetation.
Eventually farmers will use genetically-altered crops to boost yield
and improve plant quality -- the area with the largest sales potential.

"It is a period of tremendous exctiement. I have seen more change in
this industry in the last two or three years than since its inception in
the post-war years," Zeneca Agrochemicals research and
development director Dr David Evans told a meeting of analysts on
Tuesday.

Monsanto has led the way in the coming revolution, creating a brand
of soya which is resistant to its own herbicide Roundup, and working
on corn which is genetically-engineered to resist insects and tolerate
herbicides.

Companies on both sides of the Atlantic have started to pour ever
greater sums into biotech research. Monsanto spent $4 billion buying
three seeds genomics companies in 1997, while Du Pont shelled out
$1.7 billion buying a 20 percent stake in another major seed
company, Pioneer Hi-Bred International. "You have to position now in
order to get research and development in on the new genes, to get
them into seeds and on to the market," HSBC agropharma analyst
Brian Wilkinson said.

"That is an eight to ten year process. To be ready for this market
when it takes off in 2010/2015 you have got to make these
investments now."

Novartis, which some believe has been in danger of slipping behind
in the biotech race, last year announced it was spending $600 million
to build an agricultural research center in San Diego, and Zeneca
said this week its biotech spending would treble this year to $60
million from $20 million in 1997.

"Thanks to the formation of Aventis, the European position in
agrobiotech is very sound. Novartis is still a player to be reckoned
with," Wilkinson said, adding that Zeneca was also positioning itself
"astutely" in the fledgling sector.

However, putting together Du Pont's financial muscle with the
technology base Monsanto has spent several years and billions of
dollars creating will raise the stakes for European players who have
led the industry to date.

"There is an industrial logic to this," Paribas analyst Philip Morrish
said. "Du Pont has a lot of money and it would take them further in the
direction they want to go.

But HSBC's Wilkinson added: "This would be a very significant
challenge to life science companies in Europe."



To: Dan Spillane who wrote (1459)3/3/1999 6:57:00 PM
From: nickscores  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2539
 
Shapiro is a very smart guy. Perhaps he has leaked word of the Dupont discussions to the NY Times in an attempt to force Pfizer, or other interested suitors, to come to the table more quickly. This is not a rumor, simply my own hypothesis. Of course, it is equally likely that the Dupont talks - if they are still ongoing - are for real. Either way, it is fairly clear that Monsanto has significant value in the marketplace and will probably be taken out in the next 1-24 months.