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Gold/Mining/Energy : Yogen Fruz IT'S ALIVE, IT'S ALIVE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AGORA who wrote (1212)	3/4/1999 12:19:00 PM
From: Stocker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2453

Re: if the market is always right, why did YF fall from $14 to $3? If we understand your thinking correctly, purchasers of YF at $14 must have been correct in giving it that value. Given the fact that nothing really changed and that butterfat prices were not issue at $14, how did the market go wrong? I would argue that the market was not out of wack back when YF was $12-14. The market simply reflects expectations and at the time expectations where very high that YF would realize substantial synergies from Integrated Brands, and that taxes, Asia/LatAm, and butterfat would not be issues. If you indeed felt that management could pull it off, then $14 was not too high a price to pay. On the downside though, those high expectations left little room for error. As for today, the market's expectations are very low for YF. Confidence in management's ability to bring significant gains out of Integrated has shifted, tax expenses look to increase, and Asia is a question mark. Given the things we know today and the uncertainty surrounding things like Asia, EPIE, and the company's straight-forwardnesss with shareholders (PR), you could argue YF is fairly valued at $3 - UNTIL NEW INFO DICTATES OTHERWISE. When I think about whether the market is right or wrong (and I think it's right 95% of the time), I look at how the market prices in expectations, and the market sure doesn't doesn't waste much time reflecting them into the stock price. If in hindsight YF moves much higher, it will be because today's expectations, based on what we know now, were wrong. However, if today's low expectations are realized, then $3 would turn out to be too much to pay for YF. I think that even "splitting the difference" at $8.50 implies a substantial shift in expectations where in effect you are betting heavily against the market. I have to say at this point I'd be inclined to sell you all the stock you want from $5-8.

To: AGORA who wrote (1212)	3/4/1999 7:34:00 PM
From: Ward Nicholson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2453

Logic 101: Ward, if the market is always right, why did YF fall from $14 to $3? If we understand your thinking correctly, purchasers of YF at $14 must have been correct in giving it that value. Given the fact that nothing really changed and that butterfat prices were not issue at $14, how did the market go wrong? "The market is always right". This is a premise. By asking how the market went wrong you are asking something to the effect of asking a blind man how he can see. As for your claim that "nothing really changed" I'd suggest you look at a chart of YF.A. See how the price changed? Look where it was before and look where it is now. Pretty big change if you ask me. You don't think the behaviour of YF.A's shareprice has an effect on the decisions of those trading YF.A? You must be joking. WN

To: AGORA who wrote (1212)	3/4/1999 8:32:00 PM
From: Chee Keong Loh	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 2453

Oversold? More like fair value- The YF that once was-is dead. You're just fooling yourself if you think otherwise. Those pinning their hopes on this eskimo pie play are in an equal state of denial. Brokers have told me the deal is unlikely to close, especially at a fair price that won't be questioned by Bay Street. It's obvious the market action isn't betting on closure either. You guys have all fallen in love with the stock and refuse to admit a mistake- just like the management. You can always tell when a company is doomed by the number of excuses they have for their declining reputation and profit margin. That said I leave this play, closing this short for good and bid the longs good luck for they have one less bidder for their inventory. CK