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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (38966)	3/4/1999 9:24:00 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

<Since there is no substantial change in the supply-demand picture> What in the hell is he talking about. This guy hasn't noticed that the DOE has lowered its estimates for January's crude oil production within the U.S. from 6.37 mm bpd to 5.9 mmbpd? Also the DOE has said that they probably overestimated production in 1998 and understated demand for 1998. IMO, this is pretty important fundamental data that significantly changes the supply and demand outlook. The IEA gets its U.S. supply and demand data from the DOE. Thus, this proves that a significant portion of the missing barrels(the difference between the IEA's implied inventory change versus the observed change in OECD inventories) were never even produced. Look for massive IEA revisions to 1998 demand(upward) and supply (downward) as the current year progresses. Also, Canada, Norway, and a few other countries have publically stated that decline rates are starting to impact production levels and there is no way their countries will be experiencing increases in production in 1999 (The IEA's most recent 1999 S&D model states otherwise and therefore needs to revise downward their forecasted production from current levels for these countries). Furthermore, Bigbull has been posting articles regarding various Asian countries experiencing increases in their GDP growth rates. Lastly, I just read an article that China has been buying an increased amount of crude oil as of late because the underlying China demand for crude oil did not fall off as much as universally thought, but instead, China was doing a massive inventory destocking and now has to replenish their inventory levels. I think this is a key factor that many analysts are missing. Just because Asian countries significantly lowered their crude oil purchases during 1998 does not mean that the underlying demand fell by an equal amount. They were doing some inventory destocking. Sure demand for crude oil probably decreased quite significantly, but not by as much as the IEA and others commonly state. Just my 2 Cents worth.

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (38966)	3/4/1999 10:32:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

George of NOESIS is a Looney Tune if he really believes this ! <<<< << I notice a lot of activity at the web site.>>>> First a disclaimer; ...just remember his (NOESIS) survey as to what $ pricing levels people would pay for his service- No - it's never the money is it <VBG> ! ie: ******************************************************************************* <<I know the futures price of crude oil has gone up. There is no explanation, except speculation. >> ..damn; George - nice to know you noticed, but not only the futures price but the actual price of late has risen directly into your shot in the dark attempt at $8 Crude & Doom ! ...as far as no other reason than speculation - how about looking at your own damn supply number chart - you nimrod ! Link below: oil-gasoline.com ...scroll down to the Chart labeled - ''Total Crude Oil Charts''. ...now which way is the supply trend going George ? Which way are the Prices going George ? Where have prices been historically where we are going (sub 320 Million boe) in supply trend George ? What prices has crude been at 300-320 Million boe supply levels George - look at your own charts ! ***************************************************************************** <<Since there is no substantial change in the supply-demand picture, it is not likely that the price will be sustained at high levels for very long>> ...commit him to the looney bin on this comment alone ! - Again - see the above mentioned supply chart on his own site. Also, What did the Reuters article just quote the pit traders on saying ? how about this George ! from the Reuters article today: ''The short covering, combined with this week's draw in U.S. crude stocks and recent refinery cuts that have tightened product supply, have convinced buyers that things are slowly improving in the oil markets, he added. '' Okay; now let me get this straight for 'ole George; supply is down - and not undramatically so; demand is slightly up Globally and has at the very worst - bottomed for Japan and has bright spot upturns in So Korea, the Phillipines, Thailand etc. and most importantly George - the TREND is our friend ! - and your charts clearly show is where both supply and prices are going - and it ''aint'' to $8 bucks ! ******************************************************************************** <<Even a serious agreement by OPEC would take months to implement. >> ...Now - I rest my case - that this guy is a Spin Doctor and has to be flacking for the Bears - literally ! Can this guy seriously conclude that the announcement of new cuts by OPEC would not have an immediate effect on Crude Prices ? Is he serious ? Does he think that the overall TREND in supply would not be favorable for increasing prices ? I am in shock - this guy is off the wall.... a joke ! ...however; when I think about it - and remember than when in doubt - follow the money; then I realize 'ole George just got more people going to his Crude & Doom Web Site - well, maybe 'ole George is not so dumb after all <VBG>...