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Technology Stocks : Documentum (DCTM) Software -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tokyo VD who wrote (435)	3/5/1999 11:29:00 AM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 600

>>BTW, were you the guy quoted by the street.com in its coverage of the Robertson Stephens conference? no. >> If you are trying to suggest that management was overly optimistic when these reset these downwardly guided numbers, then that is possible but unlikely. My point is management doesn't know because the software environment is awful this year. Combine that with the fact that Q1 is always tough due to decreased buying by customers, and sales rep activities (training, quota benefits etc...). Q1 might be makeable but full year 1999 estimates are too high, IMO. Estimates call for a weak Q1 and then a ramp in the second half of the year. Maybe, but I doubt it. >>Chuck P Well his price target was $34 last fall and its still $34. My bet is that he will revise this after Q1 or Q2 down to something starting with a 2. Chuck doesn't know what the Q1 number or 1999 number will end up being but he can gauge the pipeline and handicap the stock. Chuck currently is cautious. >>I guess the fact that Montgomery picks up coverage doesn't mean that Vogel must have had some indication that the quarter was lining up to hit the number?? I don't think Vogel has any particularly good insight. >>I mean does he want blowup so close to his initial buy recommendation? Who cares what Vogel wants? >>If you are telling me that the trend is your friend, you are more of a trader, than an investor I try to buy and hold companies for as long as I think they can perform. I try to find solid long-term stories and find good entry points. My basic criteria for tech stocks that if you can't beat earnings estimates, it isn't worth the risk. This is 10x as true for small cap software as this area is absoultely boom/bust. DCTM's Q4 wasn't a disaster but things sure did change. I thought $1.27 was going to be a minimum and now the number is $1.09. That is enough for me to see that the company obviously lost visibility in Q4. Why bother with a stock without visibility when you can buy stocks where numbers are not only going to be made but beaten? If $1.09 goes back to $1.20, I will admit that the stock deserves to go up but I bet $1.09 is going to prove to be too high after another few data points come out (Q1 and Q2 results).