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Technology Stocks : Novellus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (1994)	3/5/1999 3:19:00 PM
From: Duker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3813

You are right on MU ... it is very difficult to come to grips with any kind of ROI in that business. The only argument that you can make is that, when they are in a capacity shortage environment, they earn absolutely ridiculous returns (68%+ Gross Margins for Memory Products in Aug 95!) ... now, in the absence of a capacity driven price orgasm, it is an awful looking business. You can make, however, a weak argument that you earn acceptable returns over a cycle ... just make sure the cycle has one of these DRAM price booms, or else your model is worth as much as my used daily wear contact lenses. On NVLS, it is a mystery to me why they sought to raise cash ... unless they just want to finance some receivables ... do an acquisition ... or signal that the stock is over-priced (something of which I do not think Rick Hill is capable) ... I think we'll just have to wait and see. --Duker --Duker