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To: gnuman who wrote (75574)	3/5/1999 11:15:00 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Gene, >>>What does it take to get 80% of homes connected to the internet in the next five years? <<< There was a chart floating around these threads several years (2?)ago showing the adoption rate into homes of various technologies from telephones, toasters, TVs, VCR's, fax machines, steros, et al. The rate of adoption for PCs was much steeper than all the others. Whereas most of the other devices are truly appliances and perform one primary function, the PC performs many different functions and indeed appear more formidable for adoption into the last 20% of homes. However, I think the difficulty is more in perception than in reality. As an example, about four years ago I gave away one of my old PC's - a 486 - to a woman in her sixties who had up until then virtually never seen a computer in her life. She very quickly started corresponding with her children and grand children in colleges via email. This woman now is a virtual shut in and now get most of her contact with the outside world through the Internet. The 486 was more than adequate for what she was doing, but last week she bought the latest IBM Thinkpad. The Thinkpad was preloaded with the Lotus Office Suite, loads of software, AOL, Netscape, and Windows 98. To my amazement, the system worked out of the box. Still, not to be immodest, most people don't have friends like me that could get them started in this way. Nevertheless, I think I have seen the future. I think you could design a system where you could take it out of the box and plug it in and have it running with greater ease than you would have installing a microwave. The market for that last 20/40% of american homes to adopt a PC could easily be achieve with some kind of convergence with TV and perhaps video on demand. The system would work out of the box and you have Email, home shopping, banking, TV, VCR, Video on demand, games, tutorials and vocational training for children and retirees and much more all rolled into one must have "appliance". Easy as one, two, three - and abort. Regards, Mary