To: Mark Peterson CPA who wrote (107783 ) 3/6/1999 9:32:00 AM From: Sig Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
Re: Recent Dell selloff Yes, in this modern volatile market the bulls and bears seem inclined to get the market moving in one direction or the other and push it to the limit. In October bears brought in every negative factor including , after Asia, the potential collapse of all the South American economy and its 1929 all over again. So we had our "29'er" for the 1990's and it was all over in a few months. Its easy to create fears in either direction. At the bottom people have lost a lot of money and its easy to picture a still further drop so the bond salesmen display their wares. At the top as we recently had, people have a lot more of money to worry about and are thus easily manipulated by any potential threat to the company (or the sector) they are invested in. A contrived tech wreck ??. Hard to prove anything, but it certainly did take the Web stocks down for a while! The bears story is that falling computer prices and cheapie computers will ruin the whole industry. That story is an easy "sell". They have been saying it since way prior to 1996. Another one is the threat of the "set-top" box which has been around for a while too. How did those affect Gateway and Dell in the last few years.? Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh, well, not much, I guess. Dell plus IBM: Dell has always been moving toward the higher end products with better margins, while Cpq and Dec were already in the high end and have headed down toward the mass market and lower margins. The IBM name screams quality, the best, and the latest. Always has and the name remains uncontaminated. This combo provides a huge boost for the sales by Dell in the high end servers, storage, and exotic notebooks. Arrays of IBM 20 gb HDs for storage, coin size power efficient hard drives for the notebooks, exotic display panels which may even replace the common monitor. If we want to know something about computers or the industry just ask people on the thread like Meathead. Most of the analysts barely have enough technical knowledge to insert a hard drive properly. But they can toss out a few well chosen words to move the market. Dell and the cheapy computer: Dell at the moment is going upstairs, not downstairs. But the IBM deal can open the door to the next step in the low price market. Working together, Dell and IBM can design whatever is next like the "computer on a chip". The big problem will be the monitor cost. IMO whatever they come up with, its not going to look like the present machines and I would not expect it soon. Might even be designated an IBM product wherein Dell provides the experience to make it mass-marketable. Summary: Dell has now moved into the big leagues. To earn their keep, and knock Dell down, analysts will have to go to work and come up with new stories instead of endlessly repeating "The price is falling, the price is falling, Bak Bak, BAA GAK " Sig