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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (3027)	3/6/1999 3:03:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Respond to of 12823

MIke, >>It gets complicated) working around here, it was just mind boggling the cost involved in simply running all the fiber and then the coaxial to the home. Just the grunt work was mind boggling. Not counting the equipment and brain power expense. I figured once GTE realized how much it cost to build a HFC network from scratch, they would ultimately just pursue the xDSL alternative.< A lot has to do with the business modeling, where they hope to extract revenues, and the changing expectations on ROI. ROI modeling of three or four years ago, with respect to builds and construction costs (both outside plant and inside infrastructure, including personnel costs and operations support systems) has changed. In earlier, simpler times, it was sufficient to calculate the number of homes passed, population densities and other demographics, and a multiplier or two to be used in determining market/segment potential for any particular build out or upgrade initiative. In this regard, things have changed dramatically. >>It may mean that since they started the test project, put all the money and time to get it working, they might as well expand it as far as they can in this immediate area. But who knows? Maybe it will end up being cost effective. Wouldn't that complicate matters. RBOCs and ILECs owning both twisted pair and HFC networks. If telephone companies continue on the HFC route, the FCC has a whole new set of parameters to consider.<< What used to be straightforward algebraic expressions in simple arithmetic (okay, I'm being overly simplistic here to make a point) to determine ROI, have now become complex formulae revolving around probabilities and extrapolations that were never even considered in years past. Most of these changes are directly assignable to Internet-related cash flow phenomena, and various abstrations from same. Or at least they 'appear' to be phenomena today... they may be understood in a more straightforward context in the future. Or they may just go away to some degree. At the present time, however, there is a lot more risk involved here in depending on these revenue streams than most planners have the luxury of considering. Encroachment must be met and pushed back, they feel, at whatever cost. This is what I am surmising. FAC

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (3027)	3/7/1999 5:33:00 PM
From: jan hobbel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12823

Mike, Something to keep in mind is that HFC, Cable Telephony, and Cable Modems are all different services with different cost models. As far as I can tell the HFC model that could deliver high speed Internet, video on demand, and Internet access is pretty much dead for now. Pacific Bell is trying to forget that they once thought that HFC was "the answer." Cable Telephony, which is HFC w/o the fiber, is also not doing well. The upgrades to the cable plant, reliability for 'life-line' service, and MODEM technology that could deliver POTS service, as well as cost are all issues that need to be worked out. Cable MODEMs are doing very well however and are being deployed at much greater rates than xDSL. There are some issues with this technology such as data security but that is easily solve-able. Packet data (TCP/IP) is much more robust and forgiving when it comes to traveling over cable modem plant (must be upgraded to bi-directional service) than synchronous telephony services so the MODEM technology is much less complicated. Bottom line is this service seems to be cost effective. Just my 2 cents. jan