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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RocketMan who wrote (6042)	3/7/1999 9:30:00 AM
From: Brian K Crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Good morning, Rocketman. I really don't see the AOL/ATHM competition as a zero-sum game. There is plenty of growth opportunity for both. That's why I own both. IMO: AOL will continue to get the beginners. And it will retain a bunch of them long term. ATHM will be a move up opportunity for serious users, but they will have to be willing to pay the additional bucks for the speed. The announced ATHM set top, low price service has potential, but has to go down as "yet too be proven" for now. But if successful they could open up the market to the non PC households. I expect the ISP pricing model will evolve to "pay for bandwidth" on both services. ATHM CEO recently made news talking about the trend in ISP service price getting to zero with advertising and ecommerce support. The trend may be down, but I wouldn't bet either service will get to zero anytime soon. In fact, I would bet on AOL getting further toward it than ATHM, just based on their bulk in users and their momentum in ecommerce and advertising. All the cable partners will want a little additional cash flow on their investment before they give up the service fees. Can't blame them for that. There are a few people like me and Mary will choose to have both, but my guess is we are a very small part of the market. If AOL offers ADSL in my market at a competitive price, I will probably go exclusive AOL, UNLESS some exclusive, compelling content or service features show up in the cable ISP offering. Here, I am thinking about movies, pay per view events, or gaming, that I could access at the cable provider but not through AOL. Last thought. I can't see where AOL solves their bandwidth dilemma except through ADSL and later, wireless. I can't see the cable guys agreeing to drop the exclusivity in the ATHM arrangement, as long as the ATHM sign up rate is strong. If sign up rate falters, while AOL's rate keeps marching along, then locals operators could be more interested in carrying AOL along side their own offering. Again, all IMO. Good luck, Brian